Spanish heatwave: Is climate change behind record heat in Europe?

A blistering and unseasonable heatwave has struck southern Spain, Portugal and Morocco this week, with temperatures approaching 40°C (104°F) in some areas. The new climate has heaped additional climatic stress on southern Europe, which is already beneath a extreme drought that’s threatening to push up meals costs. Here’s what we learn about why the record-breaking warmth is going on, and the way it may very well be linked to local weather change.

Which nations have seen data damaged?

On 27 April, Spain recorded its hottest-ever April temperature at Cordoba airport in southern Spain, which reached 38.8°C (101.8°F) in response to the Spanish meteorological service. This smashed the earlier report of 37.4°C (99.3°F), set in April 2011 in Murcia.

Portugal additionally recorded its highest ever April temperature of 36.9°C (98.4°F) at Mora, within the centre of the nation, on the identical day, whereas in Marrakech, Morocco, temperatures reached a report 41.3°C (106°F).

These temperatures are 10 to fifteen°C above the seasonal common, in response to the UK Met Workplace.

Why is that this taking place?

The heatwave is being pushed by a mass of very popular air travelling from north Africa into southern Europe, coupled with a slow-moving excessive strain system that’s suppressing rainfall and maintaining skies clear, permitting warmth to construct.

The continued drought in these nations is prone to be additionally taking part in an element. Moist soils present a cooling impact because the water they include evaporates. If soils are dry, little of the solar’s power is used for evaporation and transpiration, leaving extra photo voltaic radiation to build up as floor warming.

Erich Fischer at ETH Zurich in Switzerland says dry soils can improve the severity of a heatwave by 2 to three°C. “Drought is principally an amplifier of the heatwave,” he says. However, he notes, it’s uncommon to see this impact so early within the 12 months. “Sometimes right now of 12 months, even in southern Europe, the soils nonetheless have humidity,” he says.

What’s the affect of local weather change?

Any heatwave in the present day is made extra extreme due to the background charge of warming beneath local weather change, says Fischer. However the sheer quantity of record-breaking extreme warmth occasions seen lately ought to trigger alarm. Certainly, southern Europe and north Africa aren’t the one components of the world experiencing excessive warmth proper now. South-East Asia has additionally been hit by excessive warmth in latest weeks, with report temperatures of as much as 45°C (113°F) recorded at monitoring stations throughout Thailand, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam earlier this month. “Information must be very uncommon lately,” says Fischer. “However they’re occurring all over.”

There’s some rising proof that means chilly sea floor temperatures within the North Atlantic Ocean might affect the prevalence of maximum warmth in Europe, by influencing the motion of the jet stream and ocean currents.

Does this imply summer time shall be scorching as properly?

The present heatwave provides meteorologists little indication about what’s going to occur in the course of the northern hemisphere summer time months. Nevertheless, if the drought persists, Europe and north Africa may very well be extra inclined to excessive warmth if a excessive strain system hits later this 12 months. “It’s too early to say what these spring excessive temperatures will imply for the values in summer time,” Paul Hutcheon on the Met Workplace World Steerage Unit mentioned in a weblog submit earlier this week. “However the dry floor will imply that additional heatwave circumstances have the potential to result in even greater temperatures later within the 12 months.”

Why is it nonetheless chilly within the UK and northern Europe?

In distinction to the sweltering temperatures of southern Europe, a lot of northern and japanese Europe – together with the UK – have been dealing with beneath common temperatures this week.

Whereas a jet stream wave is bringing heat air over south-west Europe, chilly air is being pulled down from the Arctic over the UK and northern Europe. However forecasters count on the chilly snap to finish inside the subsequent few days, bringing temperatures again nearer to common throughout a lot of the UK by subsequent week.