NBA’s 11 best young stars, ranked by their long-term potential

The NBA enters the 2023-2024 season in a transitional phase among the game’s elite players. LeBron James, Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, James Harden, and Chris Paul are all nearing the end of their careers as superstars born in the ‘80s. The geriatric millennials aren’t done competing for championships yet, but they know the next generation is coming.

The ‘90s babies, led by Nikola Jokic and Giannis Antetokounmpo, might be running the NBA for now, yet a wave of young stars born in the 2000s are suddenly fully immersed in the league. On the brink of the 2023-2024 season, we’re going to rank the league’s best-rising stars, which we are defining as players in the first three years of their careers. This list covers the draft classes from 2021 to 2023.

There were some extremely difficult cuts here. Houston Rockets forward Jabari Smith Jr., Los Angeles Lakers guard Austin Reaves, and Oklahoma City Thunder guard Josh Giddey are the biggest honorable mentions. We also gave serious consideration to Pistons center Jalen Duren, Pelicans wing Trey Murphy III, Hornets wing Brandon Miller, Pistons guard Ausar Thompson, Jazz center Walker Kessler, and Kings forward Keegan Murray.

The criteria for this list is simple: These are the players we’d most want to build a franchise around long-term. Let’s rank ‘em.

11. Scottie Barnes, F, Toronto Raptors

Scottie Barnes doesn’t fit into a box. At 6’7 with a 7’3 wingspan, Barnes is a hyper-versatile forward on both ends of the floor with an enticing mix of mobility, physicality, and relentless energy. Barnes shines on the defensive end by being strong enough to hold up against bigger players on the interior while also using his length and quickness to contest shots on the perimeter. He has some unique skills offensively, too: grab-and-go rebounds, short-roll passing, and straight-line drives to the rim where he can overpower smaller defenders are all part of the package. Spot-up shooting has always been his biggest swing skill, and last season he regressed a bit to 28 percent from deep. Even without a reliable jumper, Barnes can slide into a variety of different roles for now until he finds one he’s most comfortable with long-term.

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10. Jalen Williams, G, Oklahoma City Thunder

Jalen Williams was never supposed to be on this sort of list. Ranked outside of the top 250 players in his recruiting class, Williams committed to mid-major Santa Clara, where he played for three seasons before emerging as a late lottery pick to the Thunder. As one of the oldest rookies in his class, Williams immediately made it clear he was ready to contribute at a high level. A 6’6 wing with a 7’2 wingspan, Williams impressed with his driving and finishing at the rim, his spot-up shooting, his live-dribble passing, and his ability to get into the passing lanes defensively. Williams has never been mistaken for an elite run-and-jump athlete, but it doesn’t matter for a wing this long and this well-rounded in his skill set. It’s stunning that a player like this almost slipped through the cracks, but it serves as a reminder that the NBA is always watching. As Williams proved, if you can hoop, the league will find you.

9. Jalen Green, G, Houston Rockets

Jalen Green was born to get buckets. The No. 3 overall pick in the 2021 NBA Draft first established himself as a top prospect thanks to his elite athleticism, and he’s spent his first two years in Houston learning how to handle the responsibilities of being a primary scoring option. Green’s combination of rim pressure and volume three-point shooting represents his best pathway to reaching his All-Star potential. With a wicked first step and nuclear hops around the basket, Green is a force driving to the rim, but his finishing fell off a bit last year. His shooting has been decent so far — 34 percent from three on 7.7 attempts from deep per game — but he has the touch to be closer to 40 percent. For all his talents, Green still has some holes in his game. He’s not a great passer or decision-maker with the ball in his hands, and he still has to prove he’s not a liability defensively. Bringing in two point guards in veteran Fred VanVleet and rookie stud Amen Thompson should only help Green’s development. He’s not the on-ball creator every team craves in the backcourt, but Green should continue to put up huge scoring numbers as an off-ball assassin who scores from the most efficient areas of the floor.

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8. Cade Cunningham, G, Detroit Pistons

Cade Cunningham hasn’t lived up to the hype yet. In the first 76 games of his career, the Pistons guard has lost his three ball (31 percent from deep), struggled to draw free throws, and has looked solid but unspectacular as a passer. So why is he ranked so highly on this list? Well, mostly because it’s only been 76 games. Cunningham missed almost all of last season with a shin injury, and now appears healthy at the start of a critical third year. He was the first pick in the 2021 draft because he profiles as the type of oversized offensive engine every team wants. If Cunningham regains his explosion with his leg healed, he should still be able to put pressure on the defense as a scorer and passer while also improving his three-point shot. The fact that he’s also a huge, versatile defender who can check multiple positions only adds to his appeal. Even if he’s never the greatest slasher in the world, Cunningham should be a well-rounded lead guard with real ability to play off the ball if he can shoot as well as he did in college. We’re betting the talent that made him a No. 1 overall pick is still in him.

7. Amen Thompson, G, Houston Rockets

There’s a gulf between Amen Thompson’s floor and and his ceiling, and it makes him one of the most fascinating young players in the league. The talent oozing from the No. 4 overall pick in the 2023 NBA Draft is evident from the second he walks on the floor. A 6’7 point guard with a 7-foot wingspan, Thompson may be the best pure athlete in the NBA as a rookie. He has a devastating first step, incredible open floor speed, and a wild leaping ability to get off the floor quickly and soar both higher and longer than other players. There’s also a lot to like about him as a playmaker, too: Thompson makes creative reads and daring passes after using his athleticism to bend the defense to his will. The catch here is Thompson’s perimeter shooting, which can be described as “unpolished” to put it kindly. The early returns on his jumper in preseason have been more encouraging than expected, which somehow makes him even more exciting. The Rockets have a ton of good young players, but they’re waiting for a true star to emerge. Our money is on Thompson.

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6. Scoot Henderson, G, Portland Trail Blazers

Henderson’s two seasons in the NBA incubator known as the G League Ignite seemed to stamp him as a can’t-miss point guard prospect, but he still slipped to the No. 3 overall pick last June. He’s now suddenly the face of the Portland Trail Blazers following the completion of the Damian Lillard trade, setting up what should be a long-term rebuild for the team. With little pressure to win right away, Henderson can test the limits of his game. Here’s what we already know: the 6’2 guard is a ferocious rim attacker, a maestro pick-and-roll playmaker, and a capable pull-up shooter from mid-range. Henderson has all the tools to be a good point-of-attack defender with a 6’9 wingspan and an elite mix of speed and strength, but he hasn’t proven he can consistently compete on that end yet. It may be years before we can truly evaluate Henderson’s impact on winning, but early returns of his rookie year will still be so much fun to watch.

5. Franz Wagner, F, Orlando Magic

As the big wing scorer continues to be arguably the most coveted archetype in the NBA, no young player fits the description better than Franz Wagner. At 6’10, 220 pounds, the Orlando Magic forward can initiate the pick-and-roll, rip three-pointers from distance, throw live-dribble passes, and find easy buckets as a cutter. Wagner is also a high-level defender who can move his feet with smaller guards, get into the passing lanes, and use his size to compete in the paint. It feels like Wagner has mostly flown under the radar despite two very good seasons to open his NBA career on a bad Magic team, but his starring role on Germany’s World Cup champion this summer finally started to give him the attention he deserves. Wagner’s growth as a playmaker and development as a pull-up shooter — last year he hit 40 percent of his threes on spot-ups, and 29 percent on pull-ups — will ultimately determine his ceiling. Already averaging 18/4/4 on slightly above-average scoring efficiency playing on a team with lackluster spacing, Wagner is a good player at 22 years old who feels poised to take another step this season.

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4. Chet Holmgren, C, Oklahoma City Thunder

It’s only natural to be skeptical of Holmgren because of his thin frame until the first time you actually watch him play. The Thunder big man is a tremendous force at the rim on both sides of the floor, acting as a lockdown rim protector defensively while also showing an ability to finish strong in the paint when his team has the ball. Holmgren has real offensive skill on the perimeter, too, with an easy shooting stroke from three-point range and the ability to attack a closeout off the dribble. Best of all, Holmgren’s motor never stops running, and he’s always playing like someone with something to prove. He should be a devastating defensive anchor in the paint while providing connective traits offensively that help everyone else be the best version of themselves. This type of versatility isn’t supposed to be found in players with a 7’6 wingspan, but Holmgren’s game is making it happen.

3. Paolo Banchero, F, Orlando Magic

Banchero’s advanced skill level with the ball in his hands at 6’10, 250 pounds separates him from the pack in terms of his offensive potential. The former No. 1 overall pick can create his own shot from mid-range, overpower smaller players near the basket, and leverage the threat of his own scoring to find open teammates as a passer. Banchero isn’t an elite run-and-jump athlete or a great three-point shooter, but his combination of size and skill gives him tons of upside as both a play creator and play finisher. His rookie year was full of tantalizing flashes of his long-term potential, and his minutes as a small ball five for Team USA in the FIBA World Cup only added another layer of intrigue. The next step for Banchero is learning how to pick his spots to score more efficiently. The Magic still need more shooting around Banchero and Wagner, but they should have their primary options covered for a long, long time.

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2. Evan Mobley, C, Cleveland Cavaliers

Evan Mobley’s second season showed where he thrives and where he still needs to grow. At just 21 years old, the Cavs’ big man became the second youngest player ever to be named First-Team All-Defense, asserting himself as a 7-footer who can hold his own against wing scorers on the perimeter and terrify the opposition as a weakside rim protector. His debut in the NBA Playoffs just didn’t go as planned, as Mobley got overwhelmed on the glass and struggled to make an outside shot in Cleveland’s first-round exit to the New York Knicks. Mobley still needs to improve his strength and play with more force around the rim. He needs to keep getting better as a shooter, too. Still, the overall package of talent here is hard to bet against: Mobley covers so much ground defensively with quick feet and a 7’4 wingspan, he’s a good enough passer to act as an offensive hub in the halfcourt, and he has soft touch as a finisher. The best version of Mobley could still be years away, but he’s already pretty damn good right now.

1. Victor Wembanyama, C, San Antonio Spurs

There has never been an athlete in the history of basketball with the titanic intersection of size, athleticism, and skill level of that Victor Wembanyama possesses. The French wunderkind measured 7’4 barefoot with an 8-foot wingspan and has displayed the type of athletic fluidity most bigs with his size could never dream of. The rookie big man would dominate at the rim on both ends of the floor with length alone, but his flashes of offensive creation take his potential to the next level. It’s mind-blowing to see Wembanyama run off a screen for a three-pointer, or flow from a crossover to a step-back jumper out on the perimeter. He does things the NBA has never seen before simply because there’s never been anyone quite like him. Wemby’s ascent won’t always be so smooth as both his skill set and the roster around him develops, but there’s no one with a higher ceiling for greatness in the game today.