Just 22 people are needed to colonize Mars — as long as they are the right personality type, study claims

Solely 22 individuals are wanted to create a colony on Mars, an optimistic new research suggests. Nevertheless, not everybody agrees, and a few consultants suppose many extra folks can be wanted to create an enduring human presence on the Crimson Planet.

Within the research, which was uploaded to the pre-print database arXiv on Aug. 11 and has not been peer-reviewed, researchers used a pc program, generally known as an agent-based mannequin (ABM), to foretell how many individuals can be wanted to maintain a colony on Mars. ABMs simulate how effectively teams react to difficult eventualities primarily based on their character varieties.

The mannequin checked out 4 character varieties: agreeables, who are usually not very aggressive or aggressive; socials, who’re extroverted and do effectively in social settings; reactives, who wrestle to take care of modifications to routine; and neurotics, who’re extremely aggressive and aggressive. The mannequin then diverse the variety of every sort when doing key duties resembling Martian mining and farming.

The researchers discovered that iIf most individuals have been agreeables or socials, simply 22 folks may maintain a colony. With extra neurotics and reactives, bigger teams have been wanted to succeed.

Limiting the dimensions of the primary Martian colonies will probably be crucial, as a result of the extra folks and tools which are wanted, the costlier will probably be.

Associated: How lengthy will it take for people to colonize Mars?

Two astronauts climbing mountain helping each other.

Persona varieties will affect how effectively future Martian astronauts stay alongside each other. (Picture credit score: Shutterstock)

Nevertheless, the research has main limitations. For instance, the mannequin assumed that another person had constructed the colony’s infrastructure, resembling buildings, autos and different tools. The primary colonists have been additionally assumed to have seven years’ price of power from a mini nuclear reactor, like those that energy the Mars rovers, and to obtain common provides from Earth.

The mannequin additionally solely simulated the primary 28 years of the colony. Fashions have been deemed a hit so long as at the least 10 folks survived to the mission’s finish.

Consequently, not everyone seems to be satisfied {that a} colony with so few folks would work out in actuality, particularly if the top objective is making a self-sustaining civilization on the Crimson Planet.

“Twenty-two folks just isn’t sufficient to construct and maintain a completely functioning and autonomous colony on Mars,” Jean-Marc Salotti, an astronautics researcher on the IMS (integration from materials to techniques) laboratory in Bordeaux, France, instructed Reside Science. Salotti’s analysis had beforehand discovered the minimal to be 110 folks.

Simply 22 folks could survive on the planet for a restricted time — so long as they’ve the required infrastructure, power and assets — however they’d not thrive, he added.

And whereas the brand new research’s concept of factoring in character varieties was a sensible transfer, it additionally has its limitations, Salotti mentioned.

Planet Mars with it moons Phobos and Deimos.

Mars and its moons Deimos and Phobos. (Picture credit score: Getty Pictures)

“For a colony, a easy dispute or battle may result in a catastrophe,” Salotti mentioned. However the 4 character varieties used within the research are “oversimplified, he added. Constructing and sustaining an autonomous colony on Mars requires extra folks with a larger vary of information and abilities to beat the challenges they’d face, Salotti mentioned. So he stands by his minimal estimate of 110 for future missions.

A protracted-term Martian colony would additionally require a a lot bigger gene pool than 22 folks, Salotti mentioned. If not, Martian infants would run into issues with inbreeding, which would cut back resilience and enhance the chances of a illness or physiological defect wiping them out.

In a 2018 paper, additionally uploaded to arXiv, researchers calculated that producing a genetically viable human inhabitants on a one-way journey to Proxima Centauri, the closest star system, would require at the least 98 folks. An analogous quantity can be wanted on Mars, Salotti mentioned.

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