Are Petitions for Certiorari Declining?
There have been only one,252 paid petitions for certiorari filed with the Supreme Courtroom in October Time period 2022. That is properly under the common quantity submitted through the prior five-year and ten-year durations (1,645.8 and 1593.8 respectively), as Michael Migiel-Schwartz notes in an fascinating SCOTUSBlog put up. Is that this a development?
Migiel-Schwartz writes:
This yr’s decline is substantial: a 21.2 p.c lower from the earlier 15-year common, and a 23.9 p.c lower from the earlier five-year common. Even in contrast with the 2019-20 time period’s 1,478 petitions, it marks a greater than 15 p.c lower. . . .
It’s tough to attract significant conclusions based mostly on these numbers alone, and it’s attainable that the 2022-23 time period is a one-year blip. The downturn doesn’t appear to be the results of declining deserves selections within the federal courts of appeals. Though they too have decreased lately, that lower has been gradual and pretty regular from 2012 via 2023 — not the sudden drop seen this yr within the Supreme Courtroom’s paid docket.
No matter the reason for this time period’s decline, the common of 1,589 is in step with a longer-term development downward famous in 2007 by David Stras. “All through the Eighties and early Nineties, the variety of paid petitions filed with the Courtroom ranged from 1,986 petitions in 1990 to 2,417 petitions in 1981,” Stras wrote. “Nonetheless, starting in 1994, or at concerning the time of biggest decline within the Courtroom’s plenary docket, the variety of paid petitions started to plummet, with only one,693 paid petitions filed throughout October Time period 2004, an almost 22% lower since 1994.”
It will likely be fascinating to see whether or not the precipitous drop in petitions filed final time period is a short lived blip, to which Covid-19 might have contributed, or is an element of a bigger development. Amongst different issues, the change within the Supreme Courtroom’s composition could possibly be altering the calculus for potential filers, however it isn’t clear why this is able to produce an total decline in cert petitions, versus a shift in what types of petitions are filed. (That’s, if there are fewer alternatives for progressive pursuits it could appear these could possibly be offset by elevated alternatives for conservative pursuits.)
The long term drop in paid petitions for certiorari is critical, however is much lower than the decline within the dimension of the Courtroom’s deserves docket. So whereas the decline in petitions might contribute to the shrunken deserves docket, it doesn’t seem like the motive force. The Courtroom is listening to fewer circumstances than it used to as a result of it’s selecting to listen to fewer circumstances. So until the justices resolve to start out listening to extra circumstances, or Congress intervenes, we’re seemingly caught with a smaller Supreme Courtroom docket, whether or not or not paid petitions for certiorari decline.
