A look at Week 1 NFL matchup between Bills, Rams
Since 2004, it’s grow to be a practice for the defending Tremendous Bowl champion to kick off the season at house. The one exceptions got here in 2013, when the Baltimore Ravens needed to play on the highway on account of a scheduling battle with the Orioles, and 2019, when the NFL opted to have fun its one centesimal season with a Bears-Packers matchup as an alternative of 1 that includes the New England Patriots.
In that point, the Tremendous Bowl champ is 14-3 of their Week 1 matchup. If we go all the way in which again to 2000, that jumps as much as 18-3. Principally, the Tremendous Bowl hangover hasn’t performed a significant component early within the season. Nevertheless, with the Rams taking over this yr’s Tremendous Bowl favourite, the Buffalo Payments, tonight, many individuals have shifted away from the defending champs. Hell, even Vegas lists the Payments as 2.5-point favorites on the highway. So, are the Payments that significantly better? I’ve all the time been informed that home-field benefit supplies a three-point swing in your favor when it comes to betting odds, so does this imply that the Rams can be a 5.5-point underdog in the event that they have been in Buffalo? That may’t be proper. The Rams are nonetheless remarkably good. Nevertheless, there may be one issue that has made many bettors imagine the Payments maintain a large benefit: Von Miller.
That is silly. Von Miller is nice, certain, and was a exceptional a part of the Rams’ Tremendous Bowl run final yr, however are we actually imagined to imagine that Miller holds the secrets and techniques of the Rams’ protection that the Payments want with a view to win? Information flash, the Rams didn’t change their defensive coordinator. Any and all movie the Payments would have wanted with a view to prep for this recreation was already out there.
Sure, having a vet like Miller round to assist clarify defensive intricacies to a few of the youthful Payments’ gamers will assist put together the crew, however let’s not faux like Miller was holding secrets and techniques of the Rams and has uncovered every little thing they do to this Payments’ teaching employees. Buffalo is a multi-billion greenback group with quite a few scouts, video groups, and information analysts. Any info they might’ve needed relating to Miller’s former crew, they doubtless already had months earlier than they signed Miller in free company.
Glad we acquired that out of the way in which. The most important elements to be careful for on this recreation would be the Stefon Diggs-Jalen Ramsey matchup and whether or not or not the Josh Allen-Gabe Davis connection has any remnants from that AFC Divisional Spherical matchup with the Chiefs. If Davis is something like he was in that playoff recreation, the Rams are toast. That mentioned, I don’t belief Davis after only one nice recreation. This was a man who recorded greater than 5 targets solely 3 times final season and by no means had greater than 5 receptions in a single recreation. Then the playoffs roll round, he goes nuts for eight catches, 201 yards, and 4 scores, and immediately everyone loses their minds.
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I perceive that Davis was trending up within the goal division late down the stretch final season (recording eight, seven, three, and 14 in his closing 4 video games), however let’s be actual for a second. He had 14 targets in that Week 18 recreation towards a weak Jets secondary and solely recorded three receptions. That occurred two weeks earlier than his glow-up. On the very least, that’s a flash of inconsistency, and towards a crew as defensively proficient because the Rams, they’ll take each benefit they’ll get. Whereas I assume a lot of the defensive focus will likely be on Diggs, Davis will definitely be on the Rams’ radar. Everyone is aware of the Payments are a pass-heavy crew, so the Rams have doubtless ready to close down the aerial assault and can attempt to pressure the sport into Devin Singletary, James Cook dinner, and Zack Moss’s arms early. I don’t belief any of these guys.
On the opposite facet of the ball, the query stays: “Can the Payments cease Cooper Kupp?” Frankly, I wouldn’t belief them. In 2021, the Payments solely needed to face an elite extensive receiver twice final season: Week 5 at Kansas Metropolis & Week 14 at Tampa Bay (3 times in case you embrace their playoff loss to KC). In these video games, the Payments struggled to cease their opponents’ high wideouts. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin mixed for 16 receptions, 196 yards, and a landing in Week 14. Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce mixed for 13 receptions, 120 yards, and a landing in Week 4, which isn’t horrible, however the Chiefs did wrestle early final season. Within the playoffs, Hill went nuts for 11, 150, and a rating. I perceive that the sport was a shootout and it’s robust to defend when groups are within the zone, however there isn’t a protracted sufficient monitor file of the Payments with the ability to defend towards elite receivers, and Kupp is arguably the very best within the league.
Simply because Kupp will in all probability have recreation doesn’t imply the Rams are assured to win. Nevertheless, in video games the place Kupp had 12 or extra targets final season, the Rams went 6-3 and solely scored lower than 20 factors as soon as. They scored 30 or extra in 4 of these video games. Even for an offense as high-powered because the Payments, 30 factors is hard to beat.
All this mentioned, I’m not selecting the Rams to win. You in all probability assume that given every little thing I’ve mentioned, however reasonably, this was all to level out how the Rams might win. I don’t really feel snug selecting both facet on this matchup. I wouldn’t contact this recreation with a 39-and-a-half foot pole if I have been betting this weekend. Nonetheless, surprisingly, in line with ESPN’s Choose ‘Em numbers, greater than 60 p.c of individuals have picked the Payments to win and canopy. That’s a excessive determine for a contest between two groups as proficient as we’re seeing. That rubs me the flawed manner. I’m not saying anyone who chooses the Payments is silly or flawed, but it surely ought to be a lot nearer in my view.
