There’s nobody on Earth hotter than Albert Pujols proper now. In his final 10 video games, Pujols is slugging 1.258. That’s the second-highest mark of his profession over any 10-game stretch, crushed solely by his slugging share between August 6 and August 21 of this yr: 1.259. Mainly, at 42 years previous. The Machine is having arguably the very best hitting stretch of his profession. Because the begin of August, Pujols leads all large leaguers with at the very least 40 plate appearances in slugging share… by greater than 300 factors — 1.083 for Pujols; .779 for second-place Paul Goldschmidt. He additionally leads MLB in on-base share, batting common, weighted runs created-plus, remoted energy, and he’s tied for the league lead in house runs in that span. That final quantity is crucial. With simply 41 video games left within the common season, Pujols wants seven extra dingers to be able to turn into the fourth member of the 700 membership. What are the percentages he will get there?
Nicely, at his present tempo, he ought to get there earlier than the top of September, however that’s not lifelike. With a purpose to appropriately decide the place Pujols will finish the season on the all-time house run leaderboards, we have to take a look at a few components.
- The chance that the Cardinals will face left-handed pitching down the stretch. This yr, towards right-handed pitchers, Pujols is slugging simply .600. That’s terrible. In opposition to southpaws, Pujols is slugging 1.242, which is 232 factors larger than Aaron Decide is slugging towards lefties. So, if Pujols goes to succeed in 700 dongs, a hefty quantity of lefties on the beginning docket must be the very first thing we take a look at. Certain, Pujols can nonetheless pinch-hit towards lefties late in video games, however these at-bats could be too far and few between.
- Pujols has solely performed in about 60 p.c of Cardinals’ video games this season. I’ll attempt to have a look at each chance of his prominence within the lineup in these last 41 video games, however the details of emphasis will likely be how quickly the Cardinals safe a playoff spot and division title. In the event that they don’t have anything to play for apart from playoff seeding, I’d think about the Cardinals would give Pujols each probability they might supply for him to succeed in his milestone. In the event that they don’t safe a playoff spot quickly, they’d seemingly push Pujols’ house run chase apart in favor of enjoying the folks that can assist them win.
- Dwelling run regression. Certain, at his present tempo, Pujols would attain 700 even when he solely acquired one plate look per recreation. The extra seemingly state of affairs is that Pujols begins falling again to Earth extra in line to the place he was earlier within the season. That mentioned, if Pujols will get a bunch of lefties lined up and is given a hefty quantity of alternatives on the plate, he might nonetheless attain 700 even when his at-bats per house run mark regresses.
As we speak, the Cardinals continued their 5-game collection towards the Chicago Cubs with a doubleheader. Based on mlb.com, three of the 4 Cubs’ possible pitchers are righties (Javier Assad, Adrian Sampson, and Marcus Stroman). Tomorrow’s starter continues to be but to be decided, but it surely looks like righty Luke Farrell will likely be given the nod. Given Pujols’ sizzling bat, the Playing cards most likely received’t fear about his righty-lefty splits except the workforce begins dropping. In any case, Pujols acquired the beginning at DH for the primary recreation of the doubleheader immediately. That mentioned, I doubt he’ll begin all 4 video games. He might get extra alternatives late in video games he isn’t beginning if lefty relievers are introduced in, however I don’t assume we will assume Pujols will hit any house runs this collection. At most, one.
Even throughout his unbelievable month of August, he’s but to hit a single dinger off a right-handed pitcher. The Cubs do have three lefties of their bullpen at the moment — Brandon Hughes, Sean Newcomb, and Steven Brault — and Hughes has even labored because the workforce’s nearer just lately. Nevertheless, it’s too unlikely that Pujols will face a lefty a number of occasions in any recreation all through this collection.
G/O Media might get a fee
Relaxation, get well, and chill
From family-owned natural hemp farms in Wisconsin, Evn is a high-performance CBD model that brings you a centered, calm expertise proper to the doorstep.
After the Cubs, it is going to be the Braves. They’ve an excellent bullpen and will likely be trotting out three righties for his or her upcoming collection (Spencer Strider, Charlie Morton, and Jake Odorizzi). In 33 profession at-bats towards Morton, Pujols has simply eight hits and nil house runs. Can’t depend on something popping out of that recreation. He’s had 11 plate appearances towards Odorizzi. Pujols is 0-for-10. Can’t anticipate something there. He’s by no means confronted Spencer Strider.
At that time, we’re already a sixth of the best way via the rest of the season for St. Louis, and he’s added zero to his identify. The Cardinals have 9 video games left this season towards the Pirates, eight towards the Reds, and 7 towards the Cubs. I’ve already mentioned how Pujols received’t have many alternatives towards lefties when dealing with the Cubs.
In opposition to the Reds, he’ll seemingly get to face Mike Minor and Nick Lodolo a number of occasions. That will be Pujols’ greatest alternative to realize floor. Minor is giving up an astonishingly excessive 2.2 house runs per 9 innings on the season and Lodolo, though a lot much less liable to the house run this yr, is extra liable to the stroll. If some Playing cards can get on base in entrance of Pujols in these video games, Lodolo must problem Pujols. You don’t wish to do this.
The Pirates don’t have a single lefty on their beginning rotation at the moment. The workforce traded away their solely constant left-handed starter, José Quintana, on the deadline and now solely have righties in JT Brubaker, Mitch Keller, Zach Thompson, Bryse Wilson, and Roansy Contreras. The Pirates do have three left-handed relievers, however they’ve solely pitched a mixed 21.2 innings all season lengthy. Perhaps Dillon Peters will return from the IL and pitch a bit towards the Cardinals, however provided that the Pirates are in no place to make a run for the playoffs, it’s seemingly they wouldn’t put Peters out on the mound fairly often down the ultimate stretch, choosing a number of the youthful guys as a substitute, all of whom occur to be righties. That mentioned, if Pujols manages to get an at-bat towards somebody like Cam Vieaux, a couple of house runs might very properly occur.
The NL Central is likely one of the tightest division races in baseball. Solely the NL East and AL Central are tighter. On the time of penning this although, the Cardinals had received eight in a row and 9 of their final 10, whereas the Brewers had gone 5-5 in that very same span. In my view, the Cardinals are the higher workforce and will win the division. On condition that the Cardinals have a reasonably straightforward schedule down the stretch — simply 13 video games towards groups over .500 — and solely 4 video games towards Milwaukee (St. Louis is at the moment 5 video games forward), I’d think about that the Cardinals will wrap up the division title someday between September 21 and 28. Clearly, the sooner the higher for Pujols’ sake.
Let’s assume the very best and say that the Cardinals clinch their division on the twenty first, in the midst of their collection with the San Diego Padres. That would go away two video games towards the Padres, three towards the Dodgers, two towards the Brewers, and 6 towards the Pirates. Six of Pujols’ fourteen house runs this yr have come towards these 4 groups. In reality, two of Pujols’ three multi-homer video games this yr have come towards the Brewers and Pirates — a kind of homers within the Pirates was off utility man Josh VanMeter although; I doubt he’ll be pitching once more.
If Pujols is to succeed in 700, the ultimate ten video games of the season would most likely be the very best time to take action. Each the Brewers and Dodgers have a plethora of southpaws on their staffs. Pujols did nice in his final recreation towards Brewers’ starter Aaron Ashby (two house runs), who must be again from the IL earlier than that collection — though it’s unknown when he’ll be scheduled to begin when he returns. Pujols has additionally been nice in his profession towards guys like Milwaukee’s Taylor Rogers in addition to Los Angeles’s David Worth, Tyler Anderson, Clayton Kershaw, though Pujols has by no means homered off Kershaw or Anderson. Sadly, it is perhaps too little too late at that time for Pujols.
It’s unlikely Pujols reaches 700 house runs. If Pujols had higher numbers towards right-handed pitchers this season, I’d really feel extra assured in saying the opposite, however because it stands, there’s a line of righties ready for the Cardinals that I can’t see Pujols penetrating. The Cardinals are vying for a division title, which might be their first since 2019, and in the event that they wish to safe that title, they’ll have to understand that as sizzling as Pujols is correct now, that DH spot could be greatest served with somebody apart from Pujols filling that function. Hold Pujols on the bench in case the opposition brings in a lefty reliever, however that might imply just one or two at-bats for Pujols for a number of video games within the quick future. Pujols must proceed his unbelievable tear, and at age 42, I don’t see it lasting for much longer.
As of Monday morning, Baseball Reference gave Pujols a 7.1 p.c probability of reaching 700 by the top of the season.
Even after his house run that evening, these odds nonetheless maintain true. Frankly, there simply aren’t sufficient lefties on the plate and the Cardinals will seemingly go for somebody higher towards righties till the workforce clinches the NL Central, and that may not be for a very long time. I wouldn’t be shocked if Pujols passes Álex Rodríguez for fourth all-time, however 700 is perhaps simply out of attain. Who is aware of? If he’s simply brief, perhaps he’ll resolve to come back again subsequent yr. That’s at all times a chance.
