With impending, ill-timed, why-the-hell-did-you-schedule-it-on-a-Saturday-afternoon-when-I-told-I-have-a-wedding fantasy drafts looming, should you’re not skimming random web prime 100s to solidify your consensus prime 100 listing, you’re infringing on the unwritten guidelines of procrastination. You understand the remainder of the drunk idiots smoking weed and cramming for the large day are wanting on the similar information, so no matter how correct the specialists are, what you discover from 20 minutes of Googling is a reasonably good start line.
Let’s be trustworthy, we’re all simply drafting towards the room anyway. Decide your bidding wars — or let some randomly generated snake order decide your destiny — and hope you don’t spend precious draft capital on David Johnson or Saquon Barkley or Ezekiel Elliot. Along with constructing or revealing character, public sale drafts have made probably the most coveted gamers out there to each workforce.
Now whether or not you wish to goal one of many prime 5 gamers is a matter of technique, however normally, there are only some irresponsible spenders per league, and their early sprees could make a doable franchise cornerstone out there if the nomination course of works out proper. (Or you may be caught with a top-five decide in a snake draft as a result of the marbles actually didn’t fall your method.)
Regardless, no matter method you end up with a shot at a seemingly top-five decide within the sparsely studied draft materials, a type of working backs goes to spoil your season. Barkley made specialists’ prime 5 final yr, and I personally know the way that turned out. (Editor’s Word: Sadly, I do, too). Zeke completed prime six or seven in 2021, however the yr prior he didn’t break 1,000 yards and completed with eight complete touchdowns. Christian McCaffrey wrecked a variety of groups in 2020 (and ’21), and David Johnson was the sunk price in 2019.
So first, earlier than I title the double agent within the prime 5, who’re the consensus prime backs? My cursory analysis says it’s some combination of those 5:
- Jonathan Taylor
- Derrick Henry
- Christian McCaffery
- Austin Ekeler
- Joe Mixon
I noticed Dalvin Prepare dinner rather than Mixon in a few mocks, however he has a prolonged historical past of accidents and could be too apparent of a selection. So out of these remaining gamers, Taylor will get a cross due to the fireball he was final yr, and Mixon’s earlier consistency and function in a potent offense make him really feel secure — albeit begrudgingly.
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In order that leaves Henry, McCaffrey, and Ekeler — and all three have massive well being considerations. I do know it feels insane to imagine Run CMC goes to be sturdy contemplating he’s performed 10 video games complete up to now two seasons. But Carolina has the least spectacular quarterback scenario, and whether or not it’s Baker Mayfield or Sam Darnold, he’s going to be on the receiving finish of a variety of test downs and handoffs. For what it’s value, he’s adamant that is the very best he’s ever felt, and I’d be prepared to guess on his pedigree.
At 26, McCaffrey is also the youngest of the three, which low-key issues. So far as age goes, Deadspin employees author Jon Hoefling just lately identified that there hasn’t been a prime 5 again over the age of 27 in 5 years. Which means by default — or quirky anomaly — Ekeler (27) and Henry (28) are the previous males out.
So between a working again with the physique of Terry Crews who virtually had 1,000 yards in eight video games throughout an injury-shortened season, and a 5-foot-10, 200-pound all-purpose again whose longest play from scrimmage final yr was 40 yards, it’s a reasonably simple choice. Henry is an all-time nice. Adrian Peterson had 1,400 yards when he was 30. Ladanian Tomlinson virtually had 2,000 yards from scrimmage when he was 28. That’s the sort of aristocracy King Henry is in.
What Ekeler did in ’21 was worthy of a top-five decide, and if he places up one other 20 touchdowns after having a earlier season-high of 11, good for him. Whereas I’m certain Henry’s 2021 ruined the seasons of a big portion of the faux GMs who chosen him, Ekeler’s first yr of full-time work in 2020 was equally damaging — it simply wasn’t as excessive profile. He’s damage inclined and has solely had the function for 2 years. Was I one of many many managers whose 2020 was steadily devastated by the all the time tight hamstring of the Chargers’ working again? Possibly, perhaps not, perhaps fuck your self.
I do know he’s elite out of the backfield, however probably the most dashing makes an attempt he tallied in any recreation final yr had been 17. The cash is within the assured touches, and if a few of these get taken away, particularly within the pink zone, it’ll be onerous to justify what you spent on him. Head coach Brandon Staley, speaking about Ekeler’s function this season, stated, “Hopefully, we will do much more with him.”
That’s good and all, however you may want him wholesome later within the yr — he missed Week 15 (additionally a fantasy playoff spherical) in 2021 — so that you don’t gag away one other playoff berth. Los Angeles additionally added fourth-round decide working again Isaiah Spiller out of Texas A&M who’s getting some first-team reps in camp.
All of the press Justin Herbert and LA’s different NFL workforce have obtained this offseason additionally makes me nervous. Wouldn’t it’s peak Chargers to right away dig themselves into an insurmountable gap as quickly as we forgot they weren’t the Chargers?
Should you’re complaining about my argument being primarily based solely on intestine feeling and luck, you’re lacking the purpose. Accidents or odd circumstances dictate the result of fantasy soccer. There’s all the time a again or huge receiver within the prime 5 who dismantles your rickety hopes of profitable the trophy.
The sport of roulette with the highest-priced talent gamers is why fantasy specialists blather on about gamers’ worth later within the draft. (Or, once more, for you plebeians on the market, it’s why individuals who get a top-five decide in a snake draft bemoan their luck. As a result of should you botch it, you’re not choosing once more for nearly two rounds.)
So, if mid-bidding warfare with the league’s self-proclaimed genius, you end up saying, “This looks like quite a bit for Austin Ekeler.” Again away — or hope he tops your $65 bid.
