For the results, CE Delft has assumed a excessive and a low situation of financial development and the discount of capability for Schiphol to 440,000 flight actions. So long as there may be capability, the tax will scale back the variety of passengers departing. The mounted quantity per ticket, whatever the ticket value, is after all more durable for European locations than for long-haul flights. A flight Amsterdam – London might be 12.2 p.c dearer, Amsterdam – New York solely 2.9 p.c. Regional airports don’t have any switch passengers and lots of EU locations, and there the tax leads on steadiness to 12 p.c fewer passengers. Solely a 3rd of those determine to not journey. Nonetheless, two thirds drive to a international airport or go by automotive/practice. That doesn’t present a lot environmental profit.
What’s fascinating, nonetheless, is the affect of the tax on the meant capability discount. With out capability restrictions, the tax will result in fewer boarding passengers, fewer flights and thus fewer switch passengers. When there are capability limitations (i.e. shortage), ticket costs will rise. The rise within the tax will then result in fewer individuals leaving. However that hole is instantly stuffed by extra switch passengers, and likewise extra cargo flights: in any case, they don’t seem to be affected by the tax. That impact is important. As early as 2024, the quantity of people that transfer on might fall by 5.8 p.c, whereas the variety of switchers might rise by 5.9 p.c, and this can enhance additional till 2030. That is mirrored within the figures for flights: fewer EU and extra ICA. flights. And extra freight: as much as 12.6 p.c further in 2024. On this situation with capability discount, the tax even results in a slight enhance in noise air pollution. “It is because the proportion of intercontinental flights will increase in these eventualities. The plane that fly on intercontinental routes are bigger and heavier and due to this fact trigger extra noise air pollution,” in keeping with CE Delft.
I consider – to place it mildly – that this isn’t the intention of the capability discount and ticket tax. The mixture additionally signifies that fewer Dutch individuals can journey by airplane, extra switch passengers and extra noise from cargo planes. That is placing the cart earlier than the horse. There’s a significantly better answer: levy a tax per airplane, taking into consideration noise/emissions. An airline can decide the cost on to boarder/switcher/cargo package deal itself. Air levy encourages flying to and from Schiphol with probably the most economical plane and a excessive occupancy fee. Is not that what it means for the atmosphere? The present tax actually doesn’t.
