Trey Lance completed his unremarkable preseason marketing campaign in a 17-0 loss to the Houston Texans. Lance went 7-for-11 for 49 yards, however didn’t look absolutely comfy within the pocket — lacking a number of open passes and failing to guide a single scoring drive.
Lance’s efficiency over the previous three weeks hasn’t been horrible, however it’s additionally been extraordinarily unconvincing. Particularly contemplating the 49ers nonetheless have Jimmy Garoppolo on the roster, and he led the crew to the NFC Championship a yr in the past. We’re left with a bizarre quandary on what San Francisco’s priorities ought to be this season: Profitable soccer video games and competing, or setting themselves up for the longer term.
What has Trey Lance achieved this preseason?
Lance has been an extremely correct quarterback who hasn’t made errors throughout his two video games. He’s gone 11-for-16 for 141 yards, 1 TD and no interceptions. That represents a passer ranking of 116.9, which ought to be trigger for pleasure — however it’s why we choose efficiency off video games and never field scores.
The reality is, Lance hasn’t made one impactful play exterior of a 76-yard landing to Danny Grey within the first preseason recreation. When 54 % of your passing yards come on a single play, and the remainder of the reps have been unremarkable, it’s a little bit of a fear.
At its core, the difficulty is why the 49ers determined they wanted to commerce up and draft Lance with the No. 3 choose within the 2021 NFL Draft. The crew was in search of extra playmaking and dynamism on the place, and to this point we haven’t seen it. Probably the most uncooked metric for quarterback playmaking is YPA (yards-per-attempt). It merely measures how a lot offense a passer generates each time they drop again to move, and it’s usually a terrific indicator of how good a quarterback is. Something over 7.0 is nice, with 8.0 or higher being indicative of an elite season.
In preseason Lance’s whole YPA is 8.8, which is stellar — however with out that one 76-yard move it plummets to an abysmal YPA of 4.33. For comparability, within the worst recreation Zach Wilson performed in 2021 he completed with a YPA of 4.35, and that was the worst recreation in one of many worst rookie seasons by a passer in current reminiscence.
It’s not honest to fully take away that landing from the equation, however it underscores the wildly inconsistent nature of Lance’s play. He’s not transferring chains, he’s not placing the 49ers in scoring positions, and because it stands it’s unattainable to see him as an improve for Jimmy G.
What’s the standing of Jimmy Garoppolo?
It’s been a really unusual few months for Jimmy Garoppolo. Whereas the 49ers quarterback was extremely criticized following the playoffs that noticed him end with a passer ranking of 72.7, he remained largely quiet and let the speak swirl round him.
Regardless of rumors across the draft that groups would attempt to commerce for Jimmy G, these offers by no means materialized. Whereas different quarterbacks like Baker Mayfield and Matt Ryan discovered new properties, it appeared the 49ers QB was all the time destined to stored as a fallback play for Trey Lance. Because it stands Garoppolo continues to be on the 49ers roster, and a lock to make the 53 man roster.
The query is: Is it time now to drag the ripcord and re-name Jimmy G the starter?
Ought to the 49ers make a change at quarterback?
That actually is determined by the crew’s objectives, and why this complete state of affairs has change into so troublesome. The perfect was that Garoppolo may lead the crew to success in 2021, and with a yr underneath his belt Lance may take over in 2022 — sustaining the crew’s profitable methods.
It seems the crew received’t attain these heights. As a substitute the entrance workplace is now dealing with down a state of affairs the place they want to decide on between profitable proper now and competing for a Tremendous Bowl, or enjoying out the yr and making certain Lance has time to develop. There’s little doubt the younger quarterback has proven sufficient flashes that are indicative of starter degree play, however so as to match Garoppolo’s manufacturing these flashes want to return with regularity.
It’s additionally honest to say that the 49ers offensive line has been a multitude to date. The retirement of heart Alex Mack, paired with shedding Laken Tomlinson to free company led to the crew rotating by a number of younger gamers on the OL. However, no matter their personnel switches the unit continues to be enjoying turnstile soccer that lets by move rushers like a subway at rush hour. It’s unclear if Garoppolo may have success behind this identical line as constructed, although it’s protected to say he has extra expertise coping with NFL strain than Lance.
Regardless of the frustration, it might be a mammoth mistake to make one other quarterback change now. San Francisco opens its 2022 marketing campaign in opposition to the Chicago Bears and Seattle Seahawks, with their first actual check coming in Week 3 in opposition to the Broncos. That gradual transition into the season would give the 49ers two extra weeks to have a look at Lance, then if issues are wanting unhealthy they’ll make the change. Nonetheless, in the long term, the aim ought to be sustained success — and that’s greatest achieved by build up Lance’s confidence as a passer and forcing him to play with out a looming menace of shedding his job. The instruments are there; he simply must put it collectively.
The fact is that the 49ers may not meet the lofty expectations followers had for them to return to being a power within the NFC and make a deep playoff run, however long run it’s the most effective plan of action. It is a crew that can win a Tremendous Bowl, however not till Trey Lance is prepared — and he’s not there but.
