Within the newest exhibit that the hockey gods include a depraved humorousness, the Toronto Maple Leafs at the moment are tied for the longest streak of creating the playoffs within the league. Because of the Washington Capitals, Pittsburgh Penguins, and Nashville Predators all heading for the cottage of the damned this season, it’s the Leafs and Boston Bruins tied at seven straight years. However ask any Leafs fan if that streak means something greater than a Stone of Disgrace.
These Toronto Maple Leafs, the largest assortment of star energy at ahead at the very least within the league, haven’t received a playoff collection. They hold getting there, and so they hold falling on the first hurdle. There isn’t any extra Sisyphean staff in sports activities proper now than Buds All Day. No staff has promised a lot and but delivered so little. The distinction between them and Sisyphus is that he simply needed to roll the identical boulder up the hill. The one the Leafs are sentenced to will get heavier each April.
This time round, not solely do the Leafs carry across the weight of their previous failures and the desperation of a fanbase that borders on a cult in November a lot much less April, however they’re carrying the concept this is likely to be it for this group. And even when they get previous the impediment that has outlined them for almost a decade now, a fourth playoff win, issues received’t be the identical after this. No matter occurs over the subsequent week or two, the Leafs will cross by means of a aircraft of existence.
Wanting forward
First the brass tacks. Auston Matthews enters free company after subsequent season. He can signal an extension come this summer season, and the great factor for the Leafs and Matthews is that they principally already know the quantity. It’s $16.7 million, the max wage beneath subsequent yr’s cap of $83.5 million. Is that what Matthews will maintain out for? Perhaps perhaps not nevertheless it’s the one that can form any negotiation. Connor McDavid at present makes $12.5, the very best wage within the league with Artemi Panarin. When McDavid signed it, it was 15 p.c of that yr’s cap. 15 p.c of subsequent season’s cap could be $13.1 million. So there’s your vary. The low finish of that might be a couple of $1.5 million elevate for Matthews per season.
That’s if Matthews needs to signal an extension now. Or he might watch for 2024, when the wage cap ought to soar up by a couple of million {dollars}, which might elevate the utmost wage with it. Gamers like Matthew simply haven’t gotten to free company since his teammate John Tavares did, and he might engineer one of many greatest bidding wars in NHL historical past ought to he really feel the necessity. It will get much more attention-grabbing ought to his hometown Arizona Coyotes get their new area and all of a sudden are burdened with the accountability to fill it in a method they by no means have earlier than.
Even except for the Matthews query, the Leafs have a ton of them for subsequent season already. They’ve simply 14 gamers signed for subsequent yr and simply $7 million in cap area as of now to fill all these holes. Perhaps they’ll crowbar Justin Holl, Jake Muzzin, and Matt Murray off the roster and fill a few of these holes with children, however not all of them. It doesn’t matter what occurs in these 4 to seven video games with Tampa, the Leafs received’t look the identical subsequent yr.
After all, ought to it’s one other blue-clad balls-up, the long-discussed main commerce might occur. William Nylander and Mitch Marner have seen their names thrown about to just about each staff within the league when Leafs followers begin doing the post-mortem, and that can solely intensify ought to it not go their method this spring. Nylander hits free company concurrently Matthews. Marner the subsequent summer season. Even with a rising cap in a yr’s time, is there room for all three? Would an growing old Tavares all of a sudden grow to be susceptible to a toss overboard? He’s already shifted to wing at instances to accommodate Ryan O’Reilly. Is he price $11 million per as an growing old winger? If Matthews performs hardball on an extension, would these telephone strains open?
One other first-round loss might see each GM Kyle Dubas and coach Sheldon Keefe kicked into the closest mud-puddle, regardless of producing 100-level seasons constantly. How will a brand new regime view this roster? Is Matthews going to really feel higher about sticking round amongst upheaval? These are simply a few of the balls that the Leafs should juggle.
Cautious what you want for
There’s extra to it on a non secular aircraft for the Leafs this time. One other first-round loss virtually makes it simpler to do something. The Leafs would have cowl in saying that there’s simply one thing rotten inside this group, fairly than simply being the largest sufferer of hockey’s weirdness and callousness that isn’t tied to motive, and any choice or transfer they make has logic.
However ought to they put the Lightning to the sword, and so they actually ought to, then it’s one thing else. Now what’s the crutch? Dropping to the Bruins within the second spherical would hardly be solace, however the Bs are the very best common season staff of all time, at the very least based on wins and factors, and if we ignore the souped-up standings system versus what got here earlier than. Say the Leafs take the Bruins to 6 or seven robust video games, after which Boston goes on to win the Cup. How distant are the Leafs then? Barely a half-step. What’s going to the Bruins be sooner or later? Patrice Bergeron may not be round, perhaps not David Krejčí both. And neither’s retirement would offer the Bs a lot cap aid to interchange them. They won’t be the identical subsequent yr, possible. The Lightning are on the draw back of their cycle. Nobody’s developing on the skin quick sufficient to overhaul the Leafs within the Atlantic. The Leafs can’t begin over and even tremendously change in the event that they’re so shut.
However with Matthews’s impending free company, working it again once more would one way or the other be much more fraught with strain and expectation. If the primary spherical has grow to be the title that shan’t be spoken within the T.O., then a Cup-or-bust marketing campaign will resemble one thing on the reducing room flooring of Alice By way of The Wanting Glass. If Leafs gamers and followers thought that they had it tough earlier than…
The Leafs are neither up-and-coming, nor are they, or they shouldn’t be, on the draw back of a window. No staff has extra driving on a first-round collection, and it’s onerous to consider any up to now that did as nicely. When it’s over, the Leafs can be one thing totally different. Wanting a easy playoff collection victory would possibly look fairly easy in 4 to seven video games’ time. Or it’d seem like Black Demise. The Leafs won’t ever be the identical.
To comply with Sam’s descent into insanity having to take heed to John Buccigross name playoff video games, comply with him on Twitter @Felsgate.
