We knew the brand new baseball playoff system, with the addition of a 3rd wildcard group, would create quirks. In a vacuum, it really works as a result of all division winners are thought of equal. However in actuality, the place folks play the video games, they very a lot will not be. Groups are laborious to guage on simply their document, as a result of every division winner performs such completely different schedules (one thing that will likely be partially rectified subsequent season with a extra balanced schedule). However the thought is that if you happen to’re the final wildcard group, your “punishment” is that you simply’re imagined to play the third finest group within the league, on the highway.
It’s probably not figuring out that method this season.
Rob Mains of Baseball Prospectus and Joe Sheehan in his e-newsletter have been throughout this for a bit now, however in each leagues it appears like it might be higher to complete within the final wildcard spot than within the second wildcard spot. And that’s as a result of MLB isn’t reseeding after the wildcard spherical — one thing they could wish to take a look at after this season.
Within the American League, the Blue Jays, the Mariners, and the Rays are all inside half a recreation of one another, and a full 5.5 in entrance of the Orioles. Because of the Yankees really being ambulatory and awake for a pair video games this weekend towards Tampa, these three are nearly actually going to be your wildcard groups, barring some sort of historic collapse that may put Theo Epstein again right into a gorilla costume.
The quirk of the AL is that the sixth-seed may need the better path to make some critical noise. That seed will play the winner of the AL Central, more likely to be both the White Sox or Guardians, each of that are headed for 85- or 86-win seasons, perhaps. In the meantime, the 2 wildcard groups left over are going to play one another, each of that are on tempo for 90+ win seasons.
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Now you may get into the weeds right here, and actually debate whether or not being on the highway for a max of three video games and having to see Dylan Stop for considered one of them and a scary constant Johnny Cueto or a reviving Lance Lynn is any sort of favorable matchup. Ditto having to see Shane Bieber and Cleveland’s bullpen that’s been the darkness to hitters of late. However neither could be going through Tampa’s workers, or Toronto’s lineup if it acquired sizzling, and Seattle has Luis Castillo and Logan Gilbert and Robbie Ray mendacity in wait as properly. Any group might be something over simply three video games, however we’ve 162 video games of proof that each Cleveland and Chicago have some fairly enormous flaws.
If the final seed within the playoffs is ready to overcome the AL Central winner, hardly a miraculous consequence, they’d then see the Yankees as an alternative of the Astros. Now, the Yankees aren’t actually the crash check dummy they’ve been impersonating for a pair months now. Or not less than they shouldn’t be. However it’s a lineup that has holes, and a pitching workers that’s both damage, dangerous, throwing extra innings than it ever has, or is Gerrit Cole, no matter meaning to you. And so they nonetheless would possibly win 100 video games in a division that’s going to supply two extra playoff groups and a 3rd that would be the first to overlook out (Baltimore). However they aren’t the Astros. Ending sixth might see a group get the better matchup within the Divisional spherical in addition to the primary spherical, ought to they get there.
Within the NL, it’s sort of the identical story. The third wildcard group will get to face the St. Louis Cardinals, winners of the three-legged and quarter-brained race that’s the NL Central. Yeah, yeah “Cardinals Satan Magic,” which can solely be turned as much as MacBeth ranges with Pujols and Molina of their final seasons. However the Playing cards are most positively not the Mets or Braves, which is what the fifth seed — the higher group than the sixth seed — will get as their “reward.” And will the sixth seed topple St. Louis in St. Louis (be nonetheless my coronary heart), they don’t then draw the Dodgers. Positive, the Mets or Braves, whichever one wins the NL East, are not any picnic, however the Dodgers are the perfect group within the league.
Once more, you possibly can get into the weeds right here, squint and see that with the wonky well being of the Dodgers workers and Craig Kimbrel all the time ready to go Three Mile Island within the pen, perhaps it’s no extra worrisome to face them than having to cope with deGrom and Scherzer 3 times in a five-game collection. However we play the 162 to find out who’s higher, and strictly by information posted over six months, the sixth seed finally ends up being the better path.
And most seasons will appear like this. There’s all the time a division that lags behind the opposite two, which can all the time be on faucet for the third wildcard group. There’s all the time a division that has two of the perfect groups within the league, and the one which falls quick profitable the division will likely be a a lot tougher opponent than whoever wins the remedial division. The Dodgers final yr, the Nationals of 2019, the Cubs and Yankees of 2018, have been all groups that didn’t win a division that have been higher over the season than wildcard groups by some margin. It’s simply the way it works whenever you’re cut up into six divisions.
The one actual reply is to eliminate divisions, stability the schedule fully, and take the highest six groups, which can by no means occur. Reseeding after the wildcard spherical is a half-solution. Seeding the bottom division winner and the three wildcards after the common season is one other resolution, however any group that wins a division goes to be awfully salty about having to journey to play a group that didn’t. And once more, as a result of the schedule makeups are so completely different between groups in different divisions it’s not completely honest both.
We are able to come again and snicker at this when it finally ends up being a Cardinals-White Sox World Sequence and I’ve to maneuver to the moon.
