The Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority lately elevated the finances for its BART Silicon Valley Part II extension to a staggering $9.3 billion.
That may be greater than $1.5 billion for every mile of the six-mile challenge from the Berryessa station by way of downtown San Jose to Santa Clara. There should not sufficient greenhouse gasoline emission financial savings or rider comfort advantages to justify the associated fee.
The per-mile price approaches ranges reached by New York Metropolis’s troubled Second Avenue Subway. However in contrast with that challenge, the BART extension would serve a less-densely populated space the place residents are much less inclined to make use of public transit.
VTA estimates the extension would serve 52,000 common each day riders, however most of them would change from different transit modes like bus and lightweight rail. In accordance with VTA’s Environmental Affect Assertion, the extension would generate solely 14,600 new transit journeys, largely by inducing drivers to go away their vehicles.
However even these projections are based mostly on a 2012 ridership mannequin, and thus don’t replicate behavioral adjustments arising from the COVID-19 pandemic. Pre-pandemic ridership forecasts have confirmed unreliable: In a 2010 Environmental Affect Assertion, VTA projected common weekday ridership of 41,800 on the Part I BART extension, which added stations at Milpitas and Berryessa. However in October 2022, these two stations recorded a median of solely 2,261 weekday exits.
So, the Part II extension would substitute a number of thousand automotive journeys every day at most. And, by the anticipated 2034 opening date, the line could be attracting many drivers who would possibly in any other case be utilizing electrical autos. By 2034, state regulation calls for 94% of new-car gross sales to be zero emission autos or plug-in hybrids.
The brand new BART service would supply extra choices alongside the six-mile extension, which is already served by buses and trains. However time financial savings utilizing BART could be restricted by lengthy escalator rides right down to the decrease platforms 86 toes beneath avenue degree.
Whereas probably the most cost-effective resolution is to easily cease work on this extension, VTA has loads of gross sales tax proceeds and the desire to proceed. So let’s think about a scaled-down extension.
The obvious financial system is to terminate service at Diridon Station fairly than to run parallel with present Caltrain service to Santa Clara. With electrification being accomplished later this decade, Caltrain could have adequate pace and capability to fulfill journey wants between Diridon and Santa Clara.
An alternative choice is to construct solely the primary station at twenty eighth Road/Little Portugal. Moreover saving cash, this selection would save companies alongside East Santa Clara Road from construction-related disruption. Native and categorical buses serving this thoroughfare might present frequent connections between the brand new BART terminus and downtown Diridon. VTA might scale up bus service if adequate demand materialized.
Sadly, the willingness and skill to carry out the associated fee/profit evaluation essential to right-size new initiatives eludes Bay Space transit planners. The San Jose Part II extension was deliberate a long time in the past and is continuing on autopilot, no matter whether or not stagnant inhabitants, growing distant work or a shrinkage of tech sector employment would possibly affect ridership and thus the advantages the challenge might be anticipated to supply.
This disinterest in balancing prices and advantages additionally explains why planners are going full steam forward with a second transbay BART tunnel for $29 billion, and a 1.4-mile connection between San Francisco Caltrain Station and the Salesforce Transit Heart at a value of $5 billion regardless of the collapse in commuting to downtown San Francisco. Together with the San Jose BART extension, these big-ticket initiatives will price $43 billion (earlier than overruns) and supply no transit advantages in anyway for 10 or extra years.
Bay Space residents and federal taxpayers, who will shoulder a lot of the invoice, deserve higher.
Marc Joffe is a coverage analyst on the Cato Institute specializing in state points.
