Predicting Case Authors and Outcomes as the Supreme Court Hits the Home Stretch


This time period the Supreme Courtroom was terribly gradual to difficulty opinions, however they’ve been catching up. As of at the moment, there are solely ten argued circumstances but to be determined, so it appears doubtless the Courtroom will end its October Time period 2022 enterprise this week.

As Yogi Berra warned, it is powerful to make predictions, expecially in regards to the future. Nonetheless, right here I supply just a few likely-worthless predictions about which justices will write the remaining opinions, and the way these circumstances may come out.

To set the desk, think about the next. The time period heard fewer circumstances than regular, and has resulved fewer than fifty circumstances to date. Justice Kavanaugh leads the pack with seven majority opinions to this point. I believe that is it for him. Ditto Justices Barrett, Jackson and Thomas, who’ve every authored six. Justice Gorsuch, Kagan, and Sotomayor have every authored 5 opinions, so it’s cheap to imagine they have been every assigned not less than yet another. Justice Alito and Chief Justice Roberts have every authored solely three opinions, so we’d count on every of them to have a number of further opinions.

Now the circumstances, within the order wherein they have been argued.

  • Harvard/UNC Affirmative Motion Instances—Chief Justice Roberts writes, holding each faculties’ use of race illegal. The conservative justices splinter on how far to go limiting using race in faculty admissions, as not all are prepared to get rid of the consideration of race or pursuit of racial variety all collectively. If these circumstances produce two separate opinions, Justice Thomas could have one among them.
  • Mallory v. Norfolk Southern – Justice Alito writes, limiting the power of states to require consent to jurisdiction as a situation for doing enterprise within the state.
  • 303 Artistic v. Elenis – Justice Gorsuch writes, concluding the state can not compel an internet designer to make web sites opposite to their deeply held beliefs.
  • Moore v. Harper – Chief Justice Roberts writes (maybe as “per curiam”) concluding that the case is moot and that grant of certiorari divested state courts of jurisdiction.
  • Pupil Mortgage Instances—Chief Justice Roberts writes, discovering Missouri has standing and this system is illegal. (In contrast to some, I see little or no within the Texas immigration case that undermines the case for standing on this case.)
  • Abitron Austria GmbH v. Hetronic Worldwide – Justice Sotomayor writes. I do not know what the result may be as I do know little or no in regards to the applicability of the Lanham Act. Heck, I barely perceive the problems on this case (not to mention why it is taken so lengthy for a choice right here to difficulty).
  • Groff v. DeJoy – Justice Alito writes, siding with the worker who sought spiritual lodging.
  • Counterman v. Colorado – Justice Kagan writes, rejecting the target “cheap individual” commonplace for figuring out what’s a “true risk” and remanding again to the Colorado courts.

If my predictions are right, I’ll tweet and weblog repeatedly about how this demonstrates my eager perception in regards to the Courtroom. Within the (extra doubtless) occasion that many of those predictions are gobsmacklingly incorrect, I’ll delete this publish and hope that folks don’t use the Wayback Machine to seek out it.