Opinion | Donald Trump’s 2024 Run and the 2022 Midterm Elections: 17 Swing Voters Discuss

When Donald Trump was president, you not often heard Trump voters blame him when something went incorrect; it was the Democrats’ fault, often, or the deep state or Robert Mueller or the F.B.I. or was attributable to any variety of conspiracy theories. Which is why it was hanging, throughout our focus group with 17 swing voters final Thursday, to listen to so lots of those that voted for Mr. Trump in 2020 say that they blamed him for Republican candidates’ performing poorly in final week’s midterms.

Seems they have been simply getting began.

Once we requested the group a second later for a phrase or phrase to explain Mr. Trump, the once-foretold crimson wave was changed by a wave of exhaustion, annoyance and frustration — a wave that solely grew in energy once we requested them to react to Mr. Trump’s possible plans to announce a brand new bid for the presidency on Tuesday night time.

“He ran for re-election and misplaced. He ought to go away,” mentioned one Florida voter who backed Mr. Trump in 2020. An Arizona voter who additionally supported Mr. Trump mentioned, “I really feel like he’ll be doing it for revenge. I am not going to be voting for him this time.”

These swing voters — described this fashion as a result of they break up their votes between events and aren’t hard-core partisans — weren’t the group of Mr. Trump’s desires. Nonetheless, a number of of them credited him with a robust financial system and Russia’s not invading Ukraine on his watch. When our focus group moderator Frank Luntz requested the members in the event that they agreed with the assertion “Donald Trump’s document was good, however his persona is dangerous,” 14 of the 17 swing voters raised their palms.

One other revealing second got here on the finish of the main target group, once we requested which social gathering had higher candidates operating within the midterms. Eight members who are inclined to vote Republican mentioned they thought the Democrats had higher candidates — one other implicit rebuke of Mr. Trump, who prided himself on endorsing and championing his most popular candidates final week.

As Mr. Trump appears to be like forward to 2024 — to not point out President Biden, who got here in for some robust suggestions as properly — the main target group is an indication that he can’t depend on his onetime voters to easily fall in line once more.