Previous to the season, the NFL world was conflicted on Miami Dolphins beginning quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s viability as a franchise quarterback. Even after his six-touchdown efficiency in Week 2, the world was nonetheless divided. Perhaps it was only a fluke recreation. Hell, even I identified that unhealthy quarterbacks have had video games of that magnitude earlier than. I used to be skeptical, however now that we’re greater than midway via the NFL season, Tua has proven greater than sufficient to show that he’s not solely a franchise quarterback within the NFL, however maybe adequate to compete with the perfect within the league for years to come back.
I might begin this argument with Tua’s MVP odds, speaking about how he went from lengthy shot to top-five within the league behind solely Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, and Josh Allen. That’s weak although. We’ve seen Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, and Derek Carr have near-MVP seasons earlier than. One good season doesn’t assure future NFL success.
A significantly better determinator could be his analytics, and by golly, Tua’s superior stats don’t simply bounce off the web page, they seize you by the ears and scream profanities at you till you’ll be able to’t deny Tua’s greatness anymore.
Let’s begin with Protection-Adjusted Worth Over Common (DVOA), a proportion measurement of a quarterback’s effectivity over a mean quarterback. Tua’s is insane. He leads the league in that class. The second-highest mark belongs to Kansas Metropolis’s Patrick Mahomes. His DVOA checks in at 25.2 p.c. Third, is San Francisco’s Jimmy Garoppolo — in all probability didn’t count on him; I’ll contact extra on his presence right here in a second — with 25.1 p.c. Fourth is Philly’s Jalen Hurts at 19.9 p.c. With these figures in thoughts, what might you presumably assume Tagovailoa’s determine is, hmm? Perhaps high-20s, low-30s maybe? Perhaps he blows everybody out of the water and hits us with a 40 p.c DVOA. That may be one thing, proper? Nicely, Tua’s DVOA at the moment sits at 51 p.c, greater than double Mahomes’ determine.
Now, that’s spectacular, however whereas I’m penning this, I’m already sensing the doubts a few of you readers could have. “Nicely, if Jimmy G is there, clearly one thing is fallacious with this statistic.”
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That’s a good evaluation, and the stat isn’t excellent. No stat is. Any quarterback who falls excessive on this listing can attribute a few of their success on this class to their head coach. In any case, a quarterback’s effectivity could be closely restricted by an absence of creativity from the teaching employees. That’s in all probability the principle cause Garoppolo is available in so excessive. Shanahan is heralded as an ideal offensive thoughts, and Garoppolo by no means has to throw the ball a lot beneath his watch. With Dolphins’ head coach Mike McDaniel being a scholar of Shanahan, it solely is smart that each groups’ quarterbacks could be excessive up on the DVOA leaderboards. So, now you’re in all probability pondering: “Nicely, clearly it’s all McDaniel’s system then, similar to how Shanahan’s system elevates Garoppolo.” Positive, that’s a part of it, but when Tua was as unhealthy as some folks would make you imagine, his DVOA could be a lot nearer to Garoppolo’s than it really is, not two instances larger.
Now let’s transfer to Yards Above Substitute (YAR). Consider this statistic like WAR in baseball, a cumulative determine that makes an attempt to crunch a participant’s worth right into a singular quantity, or on this case, yardage complete. It’s a cumulative stat which means that the extra cross makes an attempt a participant has, the extra seemingly they’re to have a better determine. Tua is second within the NFL with 888 YAR, 4 fewer than the league chief Mahomes (892). Tua has missed 2.5 video games.
In fact, these numbers change after we take a look at Protection-Adjusted Yards Above Substitute (DYAR), which takes into consideration the standard of protection that every quarterback has performed towards. In that statistic, which can be cumulative, Tagovailoa leads the NFL, and it’s not all that shut. His DYAR determine (909) is 48 factors larger than Mahomes’ (861). The one quarterbacks to have a better DYAR via 9 video games than Tua this yr are 2004 Peyton Manning (MVP), 2006 Peyton Manning (third in MVP voting), and 2007 Tom Brady (MVP). That’s elite firm, and as soon as once more, Tua has missed 2.5 video games. I simply wish to reiterate that.
Even in regard to extra conventional stats, Tua stands excessive above his competitors. He’s first within the NFL in yards per try, first in common internet yards per try, first in landing proportion, and first in QBR (purely a measurement of a quarterback’s play; Garoppolo ranks twenty third in that class by the best way, simply in case you weren’t satisfied that McDaniel was overlaying Tua’s flaws). These are numbers you’ll be able to’t ignore, and if Tua hadn’t missed time with a concussion, he’d undoubtedly be the MVP frontrunner in my eyes.
I’ve seen a couple of comparisons between this Dolphins staff and the 2016 Atlanta Falcons. That offense was so environment friendly and well-designed that dump-offs would normally flip into 20-plus yard good points. And sure, there are certain to be similarities since Kyle Shanahan was that staff’s OC and, like I stated earlier, McDaniel is a Shanahan prodigy. So, I get the considerations surrounding Tua’s endurance post-2022 contemplating how Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan shortly fell off after profitable the MVP in 2016. Nonetheless, if Shanahan had remained in Atlanta, there’s cause to imagine Father Time would’ve slowed down attempting to catch as much as Matty Ice. Tagovailoa is at the moment beneath contract via 2023 and given his rapport with McDaniel in addition to receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, the Dolphins could be silly to not lengthen him. McDaniel is at the moment locked up via 2025. It’s a match made in heaven and so long as they stick collectively, I’ve seen no cause why Tua can’t be thought of elite within the very close to future.
