January 8, 2023 — The Texans and Colts simply need it to all be over. Houston is 2-13-1, trying to shut out the season and rebuild with the No. 1 decide within the NFL Draft, whereas Indianapolis continues to be licking its wounds from the disastrous hiring of Jeff Saturday and a whole collapse after firing Frank Reich.
Regardless of their shared disappointment, the Week 18 recreation between the Texans and Colts is remarkably shut. The AFC South rivals are preventing for pleasure, and nothing else. Davis Mills throws a 28-yard landing go to Jordan Akins with 50 seconds left on the clock. It’s among the best throws of Mills’ horrific season, chilly consolation for a participant who’s destined to get replaced.
Down 31-30, the Texans have a call to make: They’ll both kick the additional level and prolong the ache of the 2022 season into extra time, or play to win. Love Smith makes his alternative.
From a soccer perspective it’s the appropriate transfer. That is completely how a coach ought to coach, and a staff ought to play — however right away the Texans utterly modified the NFL Draft for his or her staff, and everybody else of their orbit.
What the Texans’ win did to the draft
Beating the Colts in Week 18 solely harm Houston and boosted their AFC South rival. Had Houston misplaced, they might have locked up the No. 1 total decide at 2-14-1, whereas the Colts at 5-11-1 would have fallen to the No. 7 decide behind Detroit.
It could have locked up the No. 1 QB within the class for the Texans, and they might be deciding on Bryce Younger with the primary decide tonight, like they at all times wished. Now they’re left pondering if they need to take a step all the way down to the following rung of quarterbacks, or draft protection and hope to seek out their franchise QB some other place within the draft.
In the meantime, it put the Colts ready to discover their quarterback, with out destroying their draft capital within the course of. It is a fluid state of affairs, and there’s a really actual probability Indianapolis may commerce up on Thursday night time, however shifting up from No. 4 is considerably cheaper that leaping up from No. 7.
It’s not simply Houston and Indy although …
As we see the draft tea leaves swirl collectively, we are able to see mammoth shifts that stretch past the AFC South because of the 2 level conversion. If the Bears aren’t choosing No. 1, then Carolina are unlikely to commerce up within the draft, as a result of a driving power behind the deal was controlling their future when it got here to discovering a brand new quarterback.
It’s completely attainable the Bears nonetheless discover a commerce associate, maybe nonetheless with Carolina, however with out that No. 1 decide they possible don’t get WR D.J. Moore within the commerce. Alternatively, the Panthers may sit at No. 9 and hope a quarterback falls to them, slightly than buying and selling up in any respect — which the Colts have little or no motivation to attempt to transfer as much as No. 2 or No. 3, realizing the groups drafting forward of them don’t want quarterbacks.
The quick model of what the two-point conversion did is:
- Houston missed out on Bryce Younger
- Carolina doesn’t get their QB
- The Colts get a QB
- The Bears don’t get D.J. Moore
That’s numerous stuff to occur from one transient play.
Was the two-point conversion the appropriate name?
That’s a tough query to reply. On a macro degree, completely not. Profitable a pointless Week 18 recreation brought about immeasurable injury to the Texans that we’d not know for years down the highway. If Bryce Younger turns into a franchise-altering QB and the remainder of the category is okay, however unremarkable, then it is going to dwell in infamy endlessly.
Nevertheless, there’s additionally one thing to be stated about being a coach first, not an extension of the entrance workplace. It was Smith’s job to win video games, and motivating them to play onerous in a meaningless recreation that followers hoped they lose, says one thing concerning the tenacity of his convictions.
Hindsight years down the road will inform us extra, however the 2023 NFL Draft was really outlined by this chilly afternoon in January.
