Clearly, a win is a win, and Gov. Kathy Hochul deserves New Yorkers’ goodwill as she prepares to start her personal full time period in workplace. However look intently on the New York Metropolis outcomes. GOP candidate Lee Zeldin did astoundingly properly, and that’s with all his MAGA baggage. It’s a lesson for Hochul: She’d greatest heed what average swing voters instructed her Tuesday night time on crime management and job development.
With 97% of the vote in, Zeldin did what few individuals thought was potential a number of months in the past and got here fairly near doing what a Republican state candidate must do to win statewide — successful 35% of the native vote.
Zeldin took 30% of the Gotham vote — 514,175 votes, to be actual, in contrast with Hochul’s 70% (1,180,993 votes).
Nobody would argue that Hochul didn’t landslide New York Metropolis, as per normal in a metropolis with a 7-to-1 ratio of registered Democrats vs. Republicans.
However Zeldin’s 30% vote share was twice that of the Republican candidate’s share 4 years in the past. In 2018, GOP candidate Marc Molinaro acquired simply 15% of the town’s vote, 318,000 ballots.
This election, Zeldin beat his predecessor candidate’s complete vote depend by 62%. And in a lower-turnout race, Zeldin doubled the share of the vote.
The place? Effectively, all over the place. On Staten Island, the town’s most conservative borough, then-Gov. Andrew Cuomo eked out a tiny victory 4 years in the past, 49% to 48%. This time round, Zeldin gained by a double-digit margin, 67% to 33%.
That could be anticipated, with Staten Island voters not as postpone by President Donald Trump and his antics as the remainder of the town is.
However in Brooklyn 4 years in the past, Cuomo gained 81% to 13% (third events gained the remainder). This 12 months, Zeldin earned a full 29% of the vote, to Hochul’s 71%.
In Queens in 2018, Cuomo gained 78% to 18%. This 12 months, Zeldin garnered a full third of the vote, to Hochul’s two-thirds.
Even within the Bronx and Manhattan, Zeldin did comparatively properly. 4 years in the past, Molinaro earned simply 8% and 10% of these respective boroughs’ votes. This 12 months, Zeldin gained 22% and 18%, respectively.
It’s price repeating: For a Republican to win practically 1 / 4 of the Bronx vote is an enormous deal. It’s not a large enough deal, after all. That and $6 will get Zeldin a latte this morning.
However Zeldin proved one thing essential: New York Metropolis is what makes New York a one-party state, however even the Democratic metropolis has its limits.
Confronted with far greater post-pandemic crime charges and a sluggish jobs restoration — Gotham continues to be lacking 2% of its pre-pandemic jobs, whereas the nation as a complete has recovered — some New York Metropolis Democrats will present their frustration on the voting sales space.
Some metropolis individuals who hate Trump and are offended on the Supreme Court docket’s abortion and gun management selections stuffed within the Republican bubble on their ballots anyway.
Really, fairly lots of people did.
Statewide, too, the Legislature appears to be like to have misplaced a pair Democratic members due to its strikes, in recent times, towards the far left. Hochul should heed this signal, as she faces large stress from the left to double down on cashless bail and tax hikes.
Progressives will argue that she owes them: The left-wing Working Households Occasion accounted for 11% of her vote this 12 months, in contrast with simply 4% of Cuomo’s in 2018. However Hochul wouldn’t have wanted the far left had she stored the middle.
Statewide, Hochul’s margin of victory over Zeldin was 53% to 47%. Had Zeldin gained one other 5% of the town vote, he would have minimize Hochul’s victory to 51%, far too shut for consolation.
And presumably, such a GOP margin in New York Metropolis would bode poorly for the Democratic candidate in the remainder of the state, too. This 12 months, Zeldin simply gained Lengthy Island, a area Cuomo gained 4 years in the past.
So Zeldin despatched Hochul a historic, and invaluable, message Tuesday night time: Don’t take New York Metropolis Democrats with no consideration. With out clear progress on crime and the economic system over the following 4 years, and with (let’s hope) the reminiscence of Trump fading, New York stays in play, for the primary time in additional than a era.
Nicole Gelinas is a contributing editor to the Manhattan Institute’s Metropolis Journal.
