KYIV — In Donbas, mere miles from the center of Ukraine’s counteroffensive, you may truly discover a chuckle.
“There’s this joke that earlier than the Russian invasion Feb. 24, 2022, Russia’s military was thought-about by some to be the second-best military on the earth,” Oleg Shiryaev, commander of the 225th separate assault battalion, informed me by a translator. “After the invasion, it turned obvious that it’s the second-best military in Ukraine. After the Prigozhin coup, it’s the second-best military in Russia.”
Everybody within the room chuckles.
However after all Ukraine’s battle for survival isn’t any joke. A
nd the world is watching to see how the nation makes use of Western assist in its try to push a better-resourced, bigger-manned drive out of its territory.
“We went into this counteroffensive with very heightened expectations from not simply our Western companions however from even the Ukrainian folks as a result of all of us nonetheless keep in mind how profitable was our counteroffensive in Kharkiv,” Yuriy Sak, an adviser to the protection minister, stated Sunday over the sound of air-raid sirens.
However “the army and political command had no illusions,” understanding it’s “not going to be the identical method it was in Kharkiv and Kherson,” he famous. “The Russians have constructed unprecedentedly fortified protection traces alongside the entrance traces all over the place within the east, within the south. So we knew that there have been thousands and thousands of mines, that there have been lots of of kilometers of trenches.”
In different phrases, the counterattack stays within the early levels.
“It’s been a month and a half of offensive operations by now, however it’s nonetheless largely probing and shaping operations. Now, that implies that we’ve got not but dedicated our main forces — we’re nonetheless in search of vulnerabilities within the enemy’s protection traces.”
Mercenaries’ terrain
Shiryaev, primarily based close to Bahkmut, the town Russians took in Could and all however destroyed, is acquainted with Prigozhin’s Wagner Group mercenaries — and others. “That is the sector the place they’ve personal army corporations,” he defined. However for the reason that tried “coup,” “I haven’t seen any adjustments in anyway.”
“The Ukrainian forces are shifting ahead little by little — not drastically, however there’s motion,” he stated. “We’re utilizing the assets we’ve got available proper now, and we’re re managing to do it pretty nicely.”
Or, as Konstantyn Sergeevich Zhydkov, Lt. Col. commander of the 228th battalion, extra bluntly put it by a translator: “The enemy is standing in entrance of us, we shoot at him, they shoot at us.”
Zhydkov, who’s preventing close to Bakhmut, elaborated, “Mainly, these are artillery duels. Now there are few capturing battles — artillery is extra concerned.”
The heavy weapons like tanks Ukraine virtually needed to beg for, in different phrases.
He disputes a New York Occasions report that within the first two weeks of the counteroffensive, 20% of the gear despatched to the entrance traces was broken or destroyed.
The operation, Zhydkov stated, “goes slowly as a result of we’re involved with the lives of our fighters and we’re doing every thing very rigorously and appropriately. It is vitally essential to win, however it’s equally essential to avoid wasting the lives of the fighters in order that the fighters can proceed to do their job and return alive.”
“We by no means use our troopers as cannon fodder in pursuit of some fast successes,” Sak confirmed.
“The army planning takes under consideration all of the elements, every thing from the climate situations to the weaknesses and vulnerabilities within the protection traces of the enemy. However the precedence is at all times reaching most outcomes with minimal losses for the Ukrainian military.
Urgent for F-16s
What actually “determines the tempo of the offensive operations,” he stated, “is the entire air dominance of Russians alongside the entrance traces. For this reason we’ve been asking for F-16s for nearly a yr now. However the truth we don’t have something to counter the Russian air dominance means we’ve got to be additional cautious, and since we worth the lifetime of our troopers, it’s taking for much longer.”
Certainly, virtually no nation on earth would even contemplate “offensive operations” with out “air dominance.”
“Simply look again at how the Desert Storm shock-and-awe marketing campaign was carried out within the first couple hours,” he stated. “All Iraqi air-defense techniques had been obliterated earlier than the bottom forces truly moved in.”
“Contemplating we don’t have fighter jets and contemplating the Russians have air dominance,” he added, “this offensive goes very well as a result of we’re liberating our land.”
US-provided cluster munitions have been “deployed to the entrance traces, however we haven’t used them but” — and whereas he is aware of about “ethical considerations” round their use, Ukraine will use them “solely to defeat the enemy” and “break by the protection traces.”
He expects they’ll be a giant assist.
What to learn about this stage of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
1. Kherson
The Kherson area, positioned southwest of Zaporizhzhia, has been floated as a potential counteroffensive contender, from which Kyiv’s military may launch an assault that will slash by the Russian-occupied territory and reduce off Crimea. However the destruction of the Nova Khakovka dam this week may current a serious impediment. Kyiv has accused Moscow of intentionally detonating the dam and triggering a catastrophic flood to thwart its counter-offensive.
2. Zaporizhzhia
Russian forces claimed to have repelled 4 separate Ukrainian assaults in Zaporizhzhia, the place Kyiv’s troops tried to punch by the enemy’s entrance traces — an try that Moscow claimed resulted in heavy losses, together with 30 destroyed tanks and as much as 350 casualties. Ukraine’s army stated in an replace that the enemy remained “on the defensive,” launching airstrikes and pounding cities and villages with artillery shells.
3. Tokmak
Intense preventing was reported within the metropolis of Tokmak, a key Russian logistical hub in southeastern Ukraine that lies on the path to the bigger occupied metropolis of Melitopol on the Azov Sea, which is considered as an essential goal for Kyiv. Unconfirmed reviews claimed that German Leopold 2 tanks and US-supplied Bradleys had been engaged within the battle on the Ukrainian facet.
4. Avdiivka
The battered metropolis of Avdiivka, positioned simply exterior the Russian-controlled Donetsk within the east, has withstood 15 months of bombardments and numerous makes an attempt by the Russian troops to encircle it. The Ukrainian military stated in its newest replace that Moscow forces’ newest try to advance close to two settlements exterior Avdiivka was thwarted as they bombarded the world with artillery hearth.
5. Bakhmut
Kyiv stated its troops had superior a few mile on the flanks of the ravaged metropolis of Bakhmut within the Donetsk area in japanese Ukraine, which was seized by Russia’s Wagner Group mercenaries in Could after months of preventing and handed over to the common items. Moscow claimed it had fought off the assault, and senior US officers stated that Ukrainian troops within the east sustained “vital” losses in troopers and gear.
6. Belgorod
Professional-Ukrainian rebels have been finishing up raids into the Russian metropolis of Belgorod positioned on the border with Ukraine, as Kyiv’s forces continued shelling the town and sowing chaos. 1000’s of residents have been evacuated from the area, sparking fury within the Kremlin. Partisans collaborating within the Belgorod marketing campaign stated when Crimea is liberated, they’ll march on Moscow.
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Sak warned, nevertheless, “we should additionally not underestimate our enemy. We at all times say that the Russians are demoralized, disorganized, poorly outfitted, poorly skilled” — however they’re “studying as nicely.”
Ukraine, he admitted, “now not” has “full dominance within the drone warfare” of the invasion’s early days.
The lesson for the West: “The enemy is weaponizing time. The extra time we give them, the smarter they’ll grow to be, and the tougher it’ll grow to be for the Ukrainian military to liberate our land. For this reason procrastination may be very, very harmful.”
He instantly pointed to how coaching for F-16 pilots is “being slowed down unnecessarily by some forms in several international locations, together with the US.” By “the time F-16s will come,” Russians shall be ready.
Kelly Jane Torrance is The Put up’s op-ed editor.
