The baseball season not even being fairly every week outdated might be not the perfect time to attract conclusions. That’s not going to cease us although, as inside these partitions is the place logic goes to die. However when you’ve been paying even cursory consideration to this point, you might need observed some boxcar numbers being tossed up onto scoreboards across the league. The Philadelphia Phillies and Toronto Blue Jays went by way of a weekend the place they couldn’t get anybody out. The Boston Crimson Sox have given up 34 runs in 5 video games, and that’s not even league-worst. The Tampa Bay Rays and Los Angeles Dodgers have piled up 37 and 38 runs, respectively. It’s gotten just a little nutty.
The calm baseball fan, the non-conspiracy theorist baseball fan (if these exist, which they don’t) would possibly say, “Hey dingus, all the brand new guidelines adjustments had been meant to spice up offense. Stolen bases are up, there are extra holes for left-handed pull hitters, so, in fact, there might be fireworks aplenty, you depressing cuss you.” And that’s not essentially improper. Besides…shifts and stolen bases don’t actually have a lot to do with baseballs flying out of parks at an alarming price. You possibly can put your fielders wherever you want, you can also make the bases their very own area stations, and dudes pulverizing baseballs over numerous partitions and into the laps of varied punters across the nation is its personal factor.
Six days in, there have been 190 house runs throughout baseball. At this level final season, there have been 152. The league’s slugging proportion is .413 versus .379 final yr. Now chances are you’ll say the enhance in slugging is due to the enhance in singles and the enhance in batting common (.231 to .250) because of the shift. Might be. However right here’s one thing for ya.
There have been 29 house runs hit the alternative approach to this point this season, in comparison with 17 at this level within the season final yr. 12 house runs don’t sound like quite a bit, perhaps even simply an anomaly for the sake of an anomaly. That’s nonetheless a 70 p.c leap. League-wide, 5.2 p.c of fly balls are ending up as round-trippers. That’s up from 3.8 p.c at this level final yr.
Once more, it’s every week, and issues might flatten out. But when issues flatten out, will or not it’s as a result of baseball identical to to go in waves or as a result of MLB determined to take the gremlins out of the baseball?
You possibly can you StatCast to show something that’s remotely true
Elevating extra curiosity is that the typical exit velocity to this point is down, to 88.8 from 89.4. So’s the typical launch angle (12.1 from 13.4). Hitters aren’t barreling practically as many pitches (6.9 p.c this season after 8.7 final season). Issues that make you go hmmm….
Has the shift made a distinction? Most likely. The league’s BABIP is up practically 20 factors to .297. On floor balls solely, the place you’d count on the shift ban to take advantage of distinction, hitters have a .232 common, up from .219. However there hasn’t been a lot of a distinction for lefty hitters, the extra shifted towards crew. They’re hitting .211 on grounders this yr, towards .210 after six days final yr. In order that’s not explaining the uptick in runs. (all numbers from FanGraphs)
Sure, steals have doubled. And extra runners in scoring place definitely makes it simpler to attain on hits. Batting common with runners in scoring place has risen as properly this season, to this point, however there have been about 100 extra PAs throughout the league this level within the season than there have been final yr.
However nonetheless, that doesn’t clarify the leap in homers, and the leap in opposite-field homers. Or the truth that hitters are hitting the ball barely much less exhausting than they did and but are ending up trotting across the bases extra usually. And all of that’s whereas fastball velocity is up a tick (93.7 to 93.4 final yr). It’s not like they’re going through much less nasty stuff.
Examine this area when Dr. Meredith Willis will get a maintain of this yr’s baseballs.
