Every NBA team, ranked by their championship chances in 2023-2024 season

The NBA always feels like it’s at its best when there’s an elite tier of contenders. After two blockbuster trades to close the summer, it finally feels like that’s the case as the league enters the 2023-2024 season.

The Bucks have added Damian Lillard to fix a struggling halfcourt offense in the playoffs. The Celtics responded by trading for Jrue Holiday to help keep Lillard in check. In the West, the Suns reloaded with a bold move for Bradley Beal and overhauled depth. The Nuggets, meanwhile, had a quiet offseason knowing they already have a championship formula in place around Nikola Jokic.

Beyond the four obvious championship contenders, it feels like there’s a huge group of teams that could finish in any order ahead of the playoffs. The middle of the East could be in flux with James Harden’s trade demand breaking the 76ers, and the Heat coming up short in the Lillard sweepstakes. The West has so many question marks: Ja Morant’s impending return from suspension, Zion Williamson’s health, Chris Paul’s arrival to the Warriors, the impending ascent of the Thunder among them.

At the start of the 2023-2024 season, let’s rank every team by how likely they are to win the championship this season.

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30. Washington Wizards

The Wizards finally picked a direction, tanking their present to improve their future. Washington is still in its tear down phase even after trading Bradley Beal and Kristaps Porzingis over the offseason. Kyle Kuzma, Tyus Jones, and Jordan Poole could all be on the trade block as the Wiz prioritize their own lottery position and getting an extended look at some of their younger players.

29. Portland Trail Blazers

The post-Damian Lillard Blazers are going to be a lot of fun to watch, but don’t expect many wins. Portland has tanked the end of the last two regular seasons – winning only seven games combined after the All-Star break — even with Lillard on the team. This season will be about letting Scoot Henderson grow into a star role, evaluating what they have in Shaedon Sharpe, and seeing if a change of scenery really can unlock Deandre Ayton.

28. Charlotte Hornets

Sure, the Hornets were bombarded with injuries last year and still have a similar roster to the team that won 43 games in 2021-2022. On the other hand, this team is just a disaster on so many levels, starting with their irredeemable support of Miles Bridges. LaMelo Ball deserves better.

27. Detroit Pistons

The Pistons’ future should look more promising at this point after landing so many lottery picks over the last four years, but injuries and some odd decisions on the margins of the roster have halted their momentum. The future of the franchise rests of the shoulders of former No. 1 overall pick Cade Cunningham as he returns after playing 12 games last year because of a shin injury. Cunningham should be the type of offensive engine every team covets, but he’s struggled to get into the paint and make three-pointers when he’s been on the floor. Detroit has made some good draft picks with Jalen Duren, Ausar Thompson, and Jaden Ivey, but new head coach Monty Williams’ apparent commitment to playing two-big lineups featuring busts James Wiseman and Marvin Bagley III could undercut the franchise’s real building blocks.

26. Houston Rockets

The Rockets finally augmented their talented young core with veteran free agents and a proven head coach. Houston’s future is bright with an electric on-ball creator in Amen Thompson joining a nucleus that already includes some wonderful off-ball scorers in Jalen Green and Jabari Smith Jr. and a defensive buzzsaw in Tari Eason. Houston will eventually have to make the transition from team of prospects to a real playoff contender, but it might be a year too early to expect it to happen this season.

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25. San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs have the single greatest building block in the NBA in Victor Wembanyama. The 7’5 supernova looked so good in preseason that it isn’t outrageous to think he could be the league’s first rookie All-Star since Blake Griffin more than a decade ago. The Spurs have some nice pieces around Wemby in the form of Devin Vassell and Jeremy Sochan, but it feels like they’re going to slow-play their push for contention to maximize their long-term championship chances. Another Spurs dynasty could be around the corner, but it’s not happening just yet.

24. Utah Jazz

The Jazz were the big surprise team for the beginning of last season before falling apart after the All-Star break. Utah has some great building blocks with Lauri Markkanen’s versatile off-ball scoring and Walker Kessler’s monstrous rim protection. They add John Collins and three intriguing first round rookies to the core, but the guard play here is just too shaky to project a leap up the standings. Utah is still playing the long game in terms of their rebuild. The Jazz will be back to winning basketball soon with a great young head coach in Will Hardy, but it’s hard to project them competing for a playoff spot yet.

23. Orlando Magic

The Magic have the hard part of roster construction figured out. Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner are two brilliant young stars who profile as the franchise’s primary options for the next decade. Now Orlando has to figure out a way to improve the spacing around them. The Magic still don’t have enough shooting on this roster, and a totally underwhelming free agency period didn’t help fix it. I like Orlando’s core long-term quite a bit, but they can’t have Paolo and Franz playing in a shoe box forever.

Fighting to avoid the play-in

22. Toronto Raptors

Everyone was begging for the Raptors to blow it up last year, but instead they added a piece by trading a future first round pick for Jakob Poeltl. Toronto was better with Poeltl protecting the rim last year, but losing Fred VanVleet eliminates the team’s best playmaker and pull-up shooter. Dennis Schroder is a decent replacement, but it still feels like there’s not enough shooting here for the team to take the next step. With Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby, and Gary Trent Jr. all hitting free agency in the summer, Toronto needs to quickly assess this group to figure out if they can build off a .500 season last year, or if trades are needed to prioritize the future.

21. Brooklyn Nets

A year ago, the Nets were starting the season with Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, and head coach Steve Nash. All three are long gone now, and so too are the Nets’ championship aspirations. Brooklyn is just trying to build a sustainable foundation at this point. Mikal Bridges is an awesome starting piece who proved he’s more than a 3-and-D wing after arriving in Brooklyn at the trade deadline. Nicolas Claxton could contend for Defensive Player of the Year, and it’s possible the long-rumored Ben Simmons bounce-back season finally happens. The guard play here is a big question mark, and for as good as Bridges’ was statistically after the trade, the team’s record wasn’t very good with him as the primary option. The Nets have the talent to make this lowly preseason ranking look silly if they establish themselves as an elite defensive team, but the lack of a dynamic on-ball creator has me a little lower on them heading into the season.

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20. Indiana Pacers

I wouldn’t be shocked if the Pacers are the biggest surprise team of this year. Tyrese Haliburton is a brilliant point guard who will make everyone else’s lives easier, and there’s enough shooting and interior defense around him to envision a big leap up the standings. Bruce Brown should be a hand-in-glove fit as a perimeter defender with connective traits offensively, and don’t forget about Andrew Nembhard, last year’s most impressive second round rookie. While I like the Pacers’ breakout chances, there are just too many established teams in front of them to peg them so highly in the preseason. Indiana needs Bennedict Mathurin to take a step, or rookie forward Jarace Walker to look immediately ready for prime-time, to hit their rosiest outcomes.

19. Chicago Bulls

A team led by Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, and Nikola Vucevic should be above-average offensively and struggle defensively, but instead the opposite was true last season. Head coach Billy Donovan somehow produced a top-five defense with this group despite missing Lonzo Ball all year, but the offense only finished No. 24 because they attempted and made the fewest three-pointers in the league. Jevon Carter and Torrey Craig were nice bargain additions in free agency, but this team still didn’t do enough to address its shooting woes. The Bulls feel like they could fluctuate five games over or under .500 depending on if the defensive performance sustains, but ultimately it feels like a group with a low ceiling.

18. Atlanta Hawks

The first year of the Trae Young-Dejounte Murray experiment was totally uninspiring in Atlanta. If there’s hope for a more potent fusion between the two stars, it’s on head coach Quin Snyder to figure it out. Snyder routinely presided over some of the league’s best offenses in Utah, and he has enough pieces here to make it work. Saddiq Bey could be a better fit with the starting unit than John Collins was even if it’s a downgrade on talent. There are also some interesting young players here — Onyeka Okongwu, A.J. Griffin, Jalen Johnson, Kobe Bufkin — who could take a leap to push this group to the next level, but for now it feels like another year of fighting to stay above .500.

Conference finals or bust

17. Dallas Mavericks

Luka Doncic enters the season as one of the five best players in the NBA. Kyrie Irving knows exactly how to play off a superstar jumbo creator after winning a championship next to LeBron James in Cleveland. So why are the Mavs still in the bottom half of the league? While Dallas added some nice pieces over the offseason that should fit well, there’s no obvious answer on who will be this team’s third best player. The Mavs are also putting a lot on the shoulders of rookie center Dereck Lively II, and Jason Kidd’s has a history of making questionable coaching choices. Doncic is so good that it wouldn’t be too surprising if Dallas made another deep playoff run, but there are too many questions to expect it to happen in the preseason.

16. Oklahoma City Thunder

Few franchises in the NBA have a brighter future than the Thunder. Oklahoma City has a stud primary creator in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and a super versatile 7-footer in Chet Holmgren already in place. Josh Giddey and Jalen Williams are wonderful secondary pieces who can create their own shot and defend with plus-length, and rookie Cason Wallace should be a seamless fit once he gets his footing. Their roster should be even more suitable for playoff basketball, too. I’m slightly worried the Thunder don’t have enough shooting to truly take off this year, but their time is coming soon.

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15. Minnesota Timberwolves

The Rudy Gobert trade seems destined to go to down as an all-time blunder by the Timberwolves’ front office, but at the moment it isn’t too hard to talk yourself into Minnesota being competitive this year. There are a few reasons why the Wolves could take a jump up the standings: Anthony Edwards has another leap in him, Karl-Anthony Towns should play more than 29 games, and having Mike Conley Jr. around all year will give this group the veteran floor general it needs. The Towns and Gobert pairing still feels a little off and could hold this team back, but no one should be surprised if Minnesota takes a step forward after a feisty first round series against the champion Nuggets last year.

14. New York Knicks

Can the Knicks break the trend of winning in every other season under Tom Thibodeau? Last year’s team surpassed every reasonable expectation by winning a playoff series. The Knicks did it by getting an All-NBA season from Julius Randle, and somehow finishing No. 3 in offensive efficiency in the NBA. I’m skeptical either is sustainable for this season. New York will still have a high floor with Jalen Brunson at point guard and 48-minutes of quality center play between Mitchell Robinson and Isaiah Hartenstein. I think Quentin Grimes could have a breakout season, too. With Miami and Philadelphia potentially starring at down seasons, there’s room for New York to keep rising. A lot just has to go right for that to happen.

13. Sacramento Kings

All the Sacramento Kings did last year was put up the greatest offense in NBA history. Sacramento scored 119.4 points per 100 possessions, a new league record. While they failed to win a playoff series, the way they competed against the defending champion Warriors in the first round hinted that there was nothing flukey about the team’s regular season success. The Kings know they have one of the league’s best two-man combinations in De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis. They try to push the pace and shoot a ton of threes around that pairing. Everyone here is young enough to still get a little better, and Keegan Murray potentially has a bigger jump in him as he enters his second season. Watch out for 28-year old rookie Sasha Vezenkov, too, coming off an incredible season in EuroLeague. The Kings should be good again, but I’m not sure they did enough over the offseason to take another step in the West.

12. Memphis Grizzlies

The Grizzlies have been a regular season wins juggernaut over the last two seasons, but they’re still waiting for their playoff breakthrough. If it’s going to happen this season, it will require Memphis to overcome some incredibly difficult obstacles: Ja Morant begins the season with a 25-game suspension, Steven Adams is out for the season after knee surgery, and Brandon Clarke will miss most of the year at minimum as he recovers from a torn Achilles. The Adams injury is particularly devastating because of the way his screen setting opens up space for Morant, and his offensive rebounding keeps possessions alive. The addition of Marcus Smart will help, and Memphis’ ability to consistently unearth rotation players late in the draft could also be a saving grace in the face of so many absences. There’s still a lot to like this team, but the lack of depth in the front court just feels like too much to handle.

11. New Orleans Pelicans

The Pelicans were in first place in the Western Conference last season when Zion Wiliamson played his last game on Jan. 2. The team promptly fell apart once he went down, and ended up missing the playoffs. Williamson is finally healthy for the start of this season, but New Orleans knows he’s only been regularly available in one of his four NBA seasons. If the star forward can actually stay on the floor this year, it’s possible he emerges as a darkhorse MVP candidate and pushes his team up the standings once again.

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10. Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers are teetering on the brink of falling apart. Trading for James Harden didn’t get the team past the second round of the playoffs, and now he’s forcing his way to a new team once again. The real intrigue in Harden’s trade request is how it impacts Joel Embiid, the reigning MVP who spent the offseason talking about how badly he wants to win a championship, whether it’s in Philadelphia or elsewhere. It’s going to be nearly impossible for top executive Daryl Morey to ace the Harden trade when the Clippers are the only real suitor. Even without Harden, Philadelphia still has a capable backcourt with Tyrese Maxey and De’Anthony Melton. The Sixers know what they’re getting in Tobias Harris, but they need P.J. Tucker to stave off regression as he begins the season as the league’s second oldest player. As long as Embiid is here and healthy, the Sixers have a chance, but it’s hard to have much faith in the long-term fortunes of the franchise.

9. Los Angeles Clippers

It feels like it’s now or never for the Clippers. Every year seems to end the same way in the Kawhi Leonard and Paul George era: the team looks great when its two stars are available, but inevitably they suffer season-ending injuries and the Clippers fall short in the playoffs. It’s hard to find a reason to believe that will change this season. This team isn’t nearly as deep as it felt a year ago, and needs its stars to carry them more than ever. Even if it’s possible LA will eventually add James Harden to the mix without giving up much from its current roster, it’s hard to find someone willing to bet on Leonard and George in the fourth go-around together.

8. Miami Heat

The same cycle seems to repeat itself in Miami every few years: the team turns undrafted free agents into quality role players, loses them to big money offers in free agency, and then finds more under-the-radar gems to keep the team rolling. The Heat face that challenge again after losing Max Strus and Gabe Vincent in free agency after last season’s unlikely run to the NBA Finals as a No. 8 seed in the East. Who replaces them this year? Well, getting Tyler Herro back helps, and the team added a quality veteran in Josh Richardson for a small deal in free agency. We know the Jimmy Butler-Bam Adebayo pairing is battle-tested in the biggest moments. Count on head coach Erik Spoelstra to figure out the rest.

7. Cleveland Cavaliers

It’s easy to forget the Cavs won 51 games with a young team last season because of how poorly their first playoff run with Donovan Mitchell ended. The Knicks manhandled Cleveland physically in the first round, dominating at the rim and on the glass, and it felt like J.B. Bickerstaff was easily out-coached by Tom Thibodeau. The team spent the offseason addressing its most obvious need — shooting. Max Strus and Georges Niang are high volume shooters who should keep the paint open for Mitchell’s drives and Evan Mobley’s skilled passing. The hope for Cleveland is that Mobley takes another step, and his twin towers pairing with Jarrett Allen looks smoother this time around. There’s suddenly some real pressure on Cleveland to make a deeper playoff run with Mitchell’s refusal to sign an extension. It feels like all the pieces are in place, but it’s hard to have much trust in Bickerstaff are such a rough showing in the playoffs.

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6. Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers’ bold makeover at the trade deadline set the course for a thrilling run to the Western Conference Finals as a No. 7 seed last season. They continued adding pieces to the rotation over the offseason, most notably by nabbing Gabe Vincent from the Heat, Christian Wood from the Mavs, and Taurean Prince from the Wolves. The Lakers’ depth is impressive, but their season will ultimately be determined by if Anthony Davis can stay healthy, and if LeBron James can sustain his incredibly high level of play as he turns 39 years old in Dec. Davis is an injury concern waiting to happen, but he looked fantastic as a defensive anchor during last year’s playoff run. James can’t reach the highest levels of his game on a night-to-night basis anymore, but he can still turn it on when he really needs to. Austin Reaves and D’Angelo Russell will have to pick up the slack on nights when he doesn’t have it. The other swing factor here might be the shooting touch of Rui Hachimura: the forward hit 29 percent of his threes in the regular season with the Lakers, and nearly 49 percent in the playoffs. If everything goes right, the Lakers can talk themselves into having a title shot, but the margin for error is thin with LeBron finally at the end of his career.

5. Golden State Warriors

The Two Timelines era is dead. The Warriors finally wised up to realize Stephen Curry is the timeline, and prioritized the present with the star guard turning 36 years old before the playoffs. Jordan Poole and James Wiseman are now long gone. Chris Paul, Gary Payton II, and Dario Saric will provide a steadier hand to bench units. The biggest addition for Golden State might be the return of Andrew Wiggins, who only played 37 games due to injuries last year. Golden State can bank on Curry being a top-three player in the world again this season. It hopes Draymond Green and Klay Thompson — who both looked a little diminished in last year’s playoffs — can stave off another year of regression. The only two young players left from the Two Timelines era, Jonathan Kuminga and Moses Moody, also need to show development as they enter their third season. Something was always off with Golden State last year after Green socked Poole in training camp, and there’s reason to believe a fresh start and renewed focus on maximizing the end of Curry’s dominance could get this team one more ring.

The elite tier of championship contenders

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4. Phoenix Suns

The Suns went all-in by trading for Kevin Durant at last season’s trade deadline, only to get eliminated in the second round by the eventual champion Nuggets. Phoenix’s lack of depth was evident in that series, and they spent the offseason overhauling it every way they could. The Suns’ bold trade for Bradley Beal gives them another shot-maker on the perimeter, but he’ll have to prove he can play winning basketball after spending so many years in the Wizards’ abyss. Deandre Ayton was finally sent out, with Jusuf Nurkic taking over as starting center. For as much as Ayton needed a change of scenery, it’s hard to feel comfortable with Nurkic closing games in the middle against elite competition deep in the playoffs. Phoenix did well to add a ton of options to their bench on a shoestring budget, and new head coach Frank Vogel will use the regular season to figure out who he can really trust in the playoffs. If everything goes right, the Suns certainly have a championship ceiling, but it will require health and an understanding that the stars can’t all rely so heavily on self-created mid-range looks.

3. Boston Celtics

The Celtics are a good bet to win a championship eventually simply because they’re in the mix every single year. Boston has reached at least the conference finals in five out of the last seven years, but this offseason showed they weren’t going to get complacent because of their past success. Swapping out Marcus Smart for Kristaps Porzingis was Boston’s big gambit at the start of the summer, and they ended it by adding Jrue Holiday at the expense of Robert Williams III. The Celtics are left with the most complete seven-man rotation in the NBA, a roster stacked with a true MVP candidate in Jayson Tatum surrounded by high-level shooters, defenders, and secondary scorers. Porzingis should give Boston the third scorer it needed while also being an ace floor spacer and quality rim protector. Keeping Porzingis and Al Horford healthy and fresh should be Boston’s biggest goal beyond any regular season win total. The Celtics have shown they will continue adding pieces in-season if they need to, and the bench could certainly use an addition or two. Even without a championship in this era, it feels like no franchise has earned the benefit of the doubt more than Boston. They’re going to be great again. It’s only a matter of time before Tatum finally gets his ring.

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2. Milwaukee Bucks

Last time we saw the Bucks, they were on the wrong end of one of the biggest upsets in league history. Losing to a No. 8 seed in the first round filled the organization with urgency and spurred two huge changes: head coach Mike Budenholzer has been replaced with Adrian Griffin, and Jrue Holiday has been swapped out for Damian Lillard. Lillard is the best player to change team’s this offseason, and he goes to the club that won a league-high 58 games without him last year. Lillard is a one-man solution for Milwaukee’s consistently lackluster halfcourt offense come playoff time, and he’ll form the best two-man game in the NBA with Giannis Antetokounmpo. Having Brook Lopez and Khris Middleton as the team’s third and fourth best players is a luxury no other team can match. Milwaukee’s perimeter defense will drop off without Holiday, but having Lopez and Giannis at the rim will provide a high floor on that end. The biggest question with the Bucks feels like it’s going to be Griffin, the first-time head coach replacing the game’s best regular season coach in Budenholzer. The Bucks are out of excuses with a superstar guard and new coach in tow. Antetokounmpo has everything he needs to deliver another championship to Milwaukee.

1. Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets left no doubt they were the best team in basketball last season by running through the playoffs with a 16-4 record to secure their first championship in franchise history. Nikola Jokic silenced his doubters forever with a triumphant run through the postseason that minted him as the No. 1 player in the world. Denver brings back everyone but Bruce Brown, who left for the Pacers in free agency. The only offseason additions here were rookies, but if preseason is any indication, the Nuggets may have found another gem in Julian Stawther. The didn’t need any splashy additions because they already have a formula that works: Jokic’s all-around greatness surrounded by Jamal Murray’s clutch shot-creation, Aaron Gordon’s two-way power game in the paint, and Michael Porter Jr.’s knockdown shooting. At least one of the young players (Christian Braun, Zeke Nnaji, Peyton Watson, Strawther) will need to step up, but that’s a lot easier when they’re playing with Jokic. There was nothing flukey about Denver’s march through the playoffs. Now they’re out to prove it.