Can Kounalakis beat the odds and become California governor?



Provided that two of the final 4 California governors – Gavin Newsom and Grey Davis – acceded to the place after serving as lieutenant governor, some may assume that it’s pretty logical and nearly automated for the No. 2 to advance to No. 1.

Nicely, that might be fallacious.

In your complete 173-year historical past of the state, solely three sitting lieutenant governors have ever been elected governor. The primary time was in 1922 – totally 72 years into that historical past. The second time was 76 years later: Davis in 1998. And Davis was additionally the first-ever Democratic understudy to be elected governor. Newsom was solely the second.

Not solely has it been a uncommon incidence for lieutenant governors to develop into governor, however in fashionable occasions it has really been extra widespread for lieutenant governors to downsize themselves by working for and being elected to Congress, going from No. 2 within the largest state to considered one of 435.

John Garamendi in 2009, in the midst of his first time period as lieutenant governor, left to run efficiently for Congress in a particular election. Earlier than that, former Democratic lieutenant governor Mervyn Dymally, having misplaced his re-election bid in 1978, ran for and received a congressional seat in 1980. Democrat Glenn Anderson, lieutenant governor from 1959 to 1967, was additionally defeated working for a 3rd time period, and got here again in 1968 to snare a congressional seat.

Had been these promotions or demotions?

Different latest lieutenant governors have failed to maneuver up – or down – to something. The latest was Cruz Bustamante, who supplied himself up as a alternative for Davis within the 2003 recall and failed miserably, garnering solely 31% of the vote as the one important Democrat on the poll. His ignominy was compounded three years later when he was demolished working as sitting lieutenant governor for lowly insurance coverage commissioner – giving Bustamante the distinction of being the final Democrat to lose an open-seat race for statewide workplace.

Lt. Gov. Mike Curb, the final Republican to carry the seat by beating then-incumbent Dymally in 1978, ran for the Republican nomination for governor in ‘82, and was handily overwhelmed by George Deukmejian. Curb even got here again in ‘86 and tried to reclaim his outdated job in opposition to incumbent Democrat Leo McCarthy – and was humiliated.

And talking of McCarthy – California’s longest-serving lieutenant governor, at three phrases – he by no means ran for governor, however he did attempt twice for U.S. Senate whereas holding the put up. In 1988, he simply received the Democratic nomination, however was defeated within the normal election by Pete Wilson – conferring on McCarthy the excellence of being the final Democrat to be bested by a Republican in a California Senate race. He tried once more in ’92 as sitting lieutenant governor, however didn’t even make it out of the first, defeated by Barbara Boxer.

I deliver up all of this arcane historical past as a result of the present lieutenant governor, Eleni Kounalakis, in her second time period, has already introduced that she is working to succeed Newsom within the seemingly faraway 2026 election. She received’t be alone as the one girl working to be the first feminine governor of the largest state, since former two-term controller Betty Yee additionally has publicly declared she can be working.

Primarily based on Newsom’s success in turning into governor after two phrases as second-in-command, there is perhaps a sure inevitability in Kounalakis’ bid. Her camp is definitely furiously pushing that narrative. She could nicely win, though it’s method too early to inform.

However, once more, extra California lieutenant governors have did not win increased workplace than have succeeded. Working for something as sitting lieutenant governor has been a decidedly blended bag in latest historical past.

Garry South is a veteran Democratic strategist who has managed 4 campaigns for governor of California and two for lieutenant governor.