No matter how much we’d like to believe in the inevitably of human progress and the spread of enlightened norms, we’ve learned the last couple of years that we still need artillery shells — lots of artillery shells.
The Hamas terror attack, together with the ongoing Ukraine war and the looming Chinese threat to Taiwan, is putting a spotlight on the pitiful state of our capacity to manufacture the weapons necessary to the defense of our allies and ourselves.
CNN reports that an Israel ground invasion of Gaza would “create a new and entirely unexpected demand for 155mm artillery ammunition and other weapons at a time when the US and its allies and partners have been stretched thin from more than 18 months of fighting in Ukraine.”
As we’re learning to our regret, we are using an attenuated post-Cold War, “end of history” defense-industrial base to try to meet the security needs of a newly threatening international environment with the real risk of Great Power conflict.
As it turns out, the peace dividend was very expensive.
It now should be a matter of the highest national priority to use every lever of government and the private sector to bolster the defense-industrial base in all its aspects.
The Biden administration should care about this at least as much as incentivizing the production of electric vehicles most people don’t want to buy.
Follow along with The Post’s live blog for the latest on Hamas’ attack on Israel
We aren’t being asked, by the way, to fight a three-front war in Europe, the Middle East and Asia ourselves.
No, the call is simply to provide arms to allies under attack or threat.
If we can’t do that, what does it say about the status as the world’s pre-eminent power?
In Ukraine, the hopes of Moscow for a lightning victory and of the West for a sweepingly successful Ukraine counteroffensive both appear to have come a cropper.
Now, it’s a grinding artillery war.
Ukraine is estimated to need 1.5 million shells a year, and has been firing as many as 6,000 a day.
Russia was firing even more at the peak of its offensive.
Washington had supplied 2 million artillery shells to Ukraine as of July, and has been scrounging around — along with other Western powers — to feed whatever supplies it can find into the maw of the war.
It’s not that we’ve been completely asleep.
The United States was making 14,500 shells a month at the beginning of 2023, and has roughly doubled that.
We hope to get to 100,000 a month in 2025.
Still, highly sanctioned Russia is more proficient at producing shells.
If we can’t supply Ukraine, what if we become embroiled in a major war with China?
Worst attack on Israel in 50 years: How we got here
2005: Israel unilaterally withdraws from the Gaza Strip over three decades after winning the territory from Egypt in the Six-Day War.
2006: Terrorist group Hamas wins a Palestinian legislative election.
2007: Hamas seizes control of Gaza in a civil war.
2008: Israel launches military offensive against Gaza after Palestinian terrorists fired rockets into the town of Sderot.
2023: Hamas launches the biggest attack on Israel in 50 years.
Over 1,300 Israelis are dead, more than 3,000 are wounded and at least 100 were taken hostage, with the death toll expected to rise after Hamas terrorists fired thousands of rockets and sent dozens of militants into Israeli towns.
Hamas terrorists were seen taking female hostages and parading them down the street in horrifying videos.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced “We are at war” and vowed Hamas would pay “a price it has never known.”
Gaza health officials report at least 1,400 Palestinians have been killed and more than 6,000 injured.
War games conducted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies have us firing 5,000 long-range missiles in the first weeks of war, instantly depleting our stocks.
According to CSIS, the United States would expend all its Long-Range Anti-Ship Missiles within the first week of a conflict — when it requires almost two years to manufacture one of the missiles.
We are also in the bizarre position of being dependent on our potential enemy for the materials we’d need in a war with that enemy.
Looking to help? Donate here to UJA-Federation of New York’s emergency fund to supply critical aid to the people of Israel, working with a network of nonprofits helping Jewish communities around the world.
China has a dominant position in the market for rare earth metals — so important to the production of high-end weapons — and is the world leader in cast products.
There is no easy way out of the hole we’ve dug ourselves.
It will require more spending on defense; more reliable, long-term contracts for the production of key weapons; a focus on securing the supply chain necessary to the production of high-tech munitions; and assistance to manufacturers in training workers, among other things.
The history of empires and nations that don’t mind the need for up-to-date weapons at the scale necessary to defeat or deter adversaries isn’t a happy one.
It’s in our power to avoid this fate — if we have the will and don’t waste more time.
