After Wagner Group’s failed coup: Putin is vulnerable


In response to Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s risk over the weekend, Russian President Vladimir Putin shunned any critical counteraction as Wagner troops neared the town.

Prigozhin finally referred to as off his assault, however the occasion alone is a stark indication of Putin’s debilitated and humiliated place.

The Kremlin was fast to put the blame on the West, instantly stating that “the mutiny performs into the fingers of Russia’s exterior enemies. . . . We warn Western nations towards endeavor even the slightest makes an attempt to make use of the home Russian scenario to attain their Russophobic targets.” 

Hmm. What a wonderful thought! 

Washington ought to play off Moscow’s well-known paranoia and launch new info operations to speak Putin’s diminished energy, safety failures and tremendously diminished affect to Russia’s allies.

To make certain, Prigozhin’s “coup” failed; Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko negotiated an settlement for Prigozhin to be exiled in Belarus and for prices to be dropped. 


Russian President Vladimir Putin vowed to bring the "organizers" of the coup attempt to “justice."
Russian President Vladimir Putin vowed to deliver the “organizers” of the coup try to “justice.”
Photograph by MIKHAIL TERESHCHENKO/SPUTNIK/AFP by way of Getty Photos

Later, stories indicated that even the insurgent himself wouldn’t be charged.

In fact, Putin shouldn’t be identified to forgive betrayal.

And on Monday he vowed to deliver “the organizers of this rebel” to “justice.”

That was a vow absolutely meant to go off the chance that he will probably be seen as weak.


Wagner Group owner Yevgeny Prigozhin eventually called off the attack and went to exile in Belarus.
Wagner Group proprietor Yevgeny Prigozhin finally referred to as off the assault and went to exile in Belarus.
Prigozhin Press Service by way of AP

But the Russian chief was humiliated by his former protégé (and caterer!), and if Prigozhin survives unscathed, it’ll make Putin look weaker nonetheless.

The US ought to capitalize on the second to convey Putin’s unreliability to his allies, by way of strategic info operations.

Convincing his companions overseas, to not point out Russians themselves, may undermine assist for his warfare in Ukraine and maybe hasten an finish to the battle.

This method can be acquainted to the CIA, which countered Soviet propaganda through the Chilly Conflict utilizing comparable informational and cultural methods.

Certainly, to some extent, Washington and Kyiv have already begun efforts to embarrass Putin.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reportedly confused that Wagner had “uncovered the weak spot of Putin’s regime.”

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken mocked the Russian strongman, declaring {that a} mere 16 months in the past, Putin appeared intent on capturing Kyiv, however simply he discovered himself having to guard Moscow from invading forces.

Such rhetoric is a step in the suitable route, but america ought to broaden on these efforts by disseminating these messages worldwide via social media.


Wagner Group members sitting on a tank in Rostov-on-Don, Russia during the coup attempt on June 24, 2023.
Wagner Group members sit on a tank in Rostov-on-Don, Russia through the coup try on June 24, 2023.
AP

A wise marketing campaign that makes use of humorous memes distributed on social media is the easiest way to convey info quickly and universally.

America ought to craft and unfold memes that use photos that spotlight and even poke enjoyable at Putin’s weak spot.

Most essential, america ought to be sure that all of Russia’s allies are conscious of the dangers related to aligning themselves with a diminished and unreliable determine.

It’s particularly vital to relay the message to the International South, the place Russian disinformation surrounding the warfare in Ukraine is very prolific.

In Russian-occupied Syria and Africa, the place Wagner’s affect is pervasive, america may cooperate with native media shops to create and distribute informative content material that not solely clarifies the continued scenario but in addition communicates the fact of Putin’s weakened state.

Native influencers, well-liked radio packages and even digital billboards in city areas may function efficient media for such a marketing campaign.

In Latin America, too, Washington may leverage its sturdy historic ties and the attain of current broadcasting networks.

Participating with well-liked regional TV networks and radio stations to share content material that displays Putin’s vulnerability could possibly be efficient.


The Kremlin placed blame on the West and said the "mutiny plays into the hands of Russia’s external enemies."
The Kremlin positioned blame on the West and stated the “mutiny performs into the fingers of Russia’s exterior enemies.”
REUTERS

Because the finish of the Chilly Conflict, the US authorities has been reluctant to make use of info to its full benefit in combating enemies like Putin.

This could change.

Data right this moment is an enormously highly effective weapon.

The US can be silly to not use it (as Russia does) and fail to unfold the reality about Putin’s actual weak spot, ensuring all Russian allies know the dangers of hitching their wagon to a declining, unreliable star.

Ivana Stradner is a analysis fellow on the Basis for Protection of Democracies.